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Monday, May 11, 2020

A mixed bag to begin option expiration week as the Dow fell 109 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ positive.  The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that cannot be overlooked.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock indices but not all the way there yet.  Underlying conditions remain the same as the pandemic virus isn't just going to go away.  We'll get some economic data this week and it will be dismal.  But as we saw last week the market doesn't care.  GE lost 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold fell $17 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 4 points, while GDX shed a point.  Volume was light.  I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and it was filled.  It is showing a small loss.  This could be an ill advised expiration week trade as the short term technical indicators for the gold shares have rolled over.  The daily candlestick chart for GDX is bearish after todays price action as well.  We'll need to see a turnaround in short order or this trade will be a loser.  Regardless, if the gold shares do sell off here I'll be looking to get some GDX June calls.  I do believe that the trend is up for gold and the gold shares on a short, medium and long term basis.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX keeps heading lower as it crawls along its lower Bollinger band.  This cannot last forever and will lead to some type of decline soon in my opinion.  The market has been quite resilient lately though despite all of the negative news.  That cannot be ignored either.  My next trade is already on and I'm not exactly sure that it was the right decision.  I may have simply placed it in response to the losing SPY trade of last week.  I do believe in the gold shares moving higher but perhaps should have waited for the indicators to get completely oversold.  However that's something that hasn't happened for quite a while and every simply decline in the gold shares has been met with buyers.  We'll see if that's the case this time around as well.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower to begin the week overseas.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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