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Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Another day of selling as the Dow fell 516 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index down.  The market clearly didn't like what the Fed had to say today.  I do think that we'll head even lower form here but it may not be in a straight line.  The S&P did manage to hold the 2800 level with a rally in the final half hour.  But the tone has changed in the past two sessions and we could just see weakness into Fridays expiration.  That's a guess as usual, however the short term technical indicators are now falling and they haven't gotten oversold yet.  The economic background remains the same with partial openings in different states.  Things will not be returning to normal anytime soon.  The pandemic virus remains in charge.  GE was off another twenty cents on extremely heavy volume.  I can't see any good news there in the near future.  Gold rallied on what I'm guessing is the market decline.  The precious metal futures rose $15 and the US dollar was up as well.  The gold shares didn't participate to the upside and instead followed the overall market.  The XAU and GDX rose just 1/4 each on light volume.  No volume and no interest lately for the gold shares.  My GDX May calls are still showing a loss with only two trading sessions left.  I've had a couple chances in the past two days to exit this trade with a small gain.  I probably should take that opportunity if it presents itself again tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continued to rise today and the technical indicators here still have room to run higher.  That's another reason why the decline may not be done with just yet.  The overall market was weak but not as weak as the Dow.  I don't think that this is the beginning of a retest of the lows from March.  I'm thinking that this is more of a trip back to the 50 day moving averages for the major indexes.  If that's the case we're about half way there.  How things shape up when we get there will determine the next move.  That's my hypothesis at the moment.  I'm more focused on what gold does in the next two days because that's where my current trade is.  With any luck perhaps we'll see a rally in the gold shares early in the morning and I'll have a chance to get out with a small loss or profit.  This trade is yet another that just isn't going as planned.  Europe and Asia were lower and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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