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Tuesday, May 05, 2020

The Dow closed up 133 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow once again.  We did have much better gains during the session but dropped hard in the final hour.  My open order for some SPY May puts wasn't filled but I'm leaving it out there.  Not sure why we fell in the last hour but I am not a believer in the rally going on for much longer.  I could be wrong.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are now mid-range.  In that respect, things could go either way.  I'll keep an eye on the futures tonight and take it from there.  I am however pretty committed to wanting to be short ahead of the jobs report.  GE was down a penny and the volume remains heavy.  Gold was up $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU gained 1 3/4, while GDX rose 3/4.  Volume was light.  NEM rallied after dropping early on its earnings report.  GOLD reports tomorrow.  It appears that I've missed my chance for the gold share calls for the May option cycle.  Things here are overbought and staying that way.  Every order that I've tried here hasn't been filled.  I do still like the June calls here as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains short term oversold but there is some room to go lower before it touches the Bollinger band again.  I certainly have not been able to read this indicator properly since the huge run up to the 85 level.  Only 8 days left in the May option cycle.  The late price action today was clearly negative but some of the short term technical indicators for the market are trying to turn back up.  I suppose I'm hoping for some kind of stall here to get filled on my open SPY put order.  But there's also a chance that things simply head higher from here as well.  I don't want to make a trade simply for the sake of making one.  Plus trading the SPY requires some quick thinking since it is such a fast moving trading instrument.  I hope that I'm up for the challenge.  I also won't make any profits by sitting on the sidelines forever.  So it's a tough call exactly what to do here, unlike other trade set ups.  I'll look things over again tonight and go from there.  Some foreign markets were closed overnight but what were open were generally higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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