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Thursday, May 14, 2020

We had a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 377 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The overall market was not as strong as the Dow.  The market fell in the first half hour but had a steady gain for the rest of the day.  No new news to report but we will get a look at retail sales tomorrow.  The Dow did bounce from its 50 day moving average.  I'm still a believer in lower prices going forward as we are in expiration week with all of it peculiarities.  However we have moved to oversold on some of the major stock indices.  So it's a mixed bag at best for now.  GE was off a few cents and volume remained heavy.  Gold rallied as the futures gained around twenty bucks.  Silver broke out and had a stellar day as well.  The US dollar was just slightly higher.  The XAU rose 3 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/8.  Volume remains light here.  I did sell my GDX May calls for a profit.  The gain was 60%.  Of course it could have been better but I used a stop limit order that got bounced around.  Simply getting out at the market would have added around another 10% to the gain.  Sloppy exit as usual.  I really would have liked to have held on to this trade but with only a day left the risk would have been sky high.  I do think that the gold shares are going higher and I will be looking to get the GDX June calls but it may already be too late for that.  There is also an extra week on the June options and the premiums are pricey.  Gold and the gold shares remain in an uptrend and that is something that I think will be worth to continue following.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had a reversal today as well and looks like it wants to start heading back down.  That would bode well for the bulls in the near term if it were to occur.  I'm not looking for some huge rally to start here but perhaps a trip back up to the top of the Bollinger band range for the S&P.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We'll see how thing go with the option expiration tomorrow.  Europe and Asia sold off last night but I'd expect to see some rally to end the week there following todays US market action.  Plenty of economic data due tomorrow led by retail sales.  We'll see how the market reacts tomorrow morning. 

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