Tuesday, May 26, 2020
We had a huge gap up this morning as the Dow rallied 529 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. There was a signal for a big move on Friday from the McClellan oscillator and we got it today. The Dow was up over 700 points but we got a last hour sell off that slightly changed the picture. The S&P 500 made it up and over its 200 day moving average during the session but fell back. The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow, with the NASDAQ barely registering a gain and dropping well off of its highs. So we have that to contend with. But you cannot deny that the recent congestion zone has been broken to the upside on good volume. My prognosis for a drop here was wrong. I will however be closely watching what happens here because today may actually have been the time to try the SPY puts. I'm saying this because we didn't finish near the session highs on the S&P despite the breakout and the NASDAQ had real underperformance which we haven't seen lately. GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume. Gold took a hit as the futures fell around twenty bucks. The US dollar had a good drop as well. There are no need for safe havens if the markets are going to recover and that is what the market was saying today. The XAU lost 5 1/3, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was about average. Another day like today and my open order for the GDX June calls will get filled. I'm still going with this idea for now as the short term technical indicators for GDX are finally moving lower towards actually becoming oversold. However what does trouble me here is the monthly candlestick chart for gold itself. If we were to close where we are today at the end of the week, the pattern would certainly be bearish for the medium term. It is a short trading week with only 3 days left to go so we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just slightly lower today despite the run up in stocks. It did not touch the lower Bollinger band or get close to the 200 day moving average. A touch of the lower Bollinger band would certainly get me more interested in perhaps trying the June SPY puts. The major indices are short term overbought. However it is hard to ignore todays positive price action. The backdrop of the pandemic virus remains but the atmosphere doesn't seem as dire as it once was. More states are opening up for business and with the warmer weather for now things seem to be on the upswing. We'll have to see where we go from here. Europe and Asia had nice gains. I'd expect to see some follow through in trading tonight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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