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Friday, May 29, 2020

Back and forth today to close out the month of May and the Dow lost 17 points on end of the month heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The short term technical condition remains overbought for the major stock indices.  The economic data remains very weak and the market continues to look past it.  I'm still looking for higher prices after the recent breakout.  GE lost about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold picked up over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  No volume equals no interest in my mind.  Gold itself had a decent week but the gold shares did not participate as they have recently.  To me this spells trouble for my GDX June call trade.  The gold shares need to be leading the way higher and for now they are having trouble following.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to pinch on the daily GDX chart, implying a big move is in the works and coming relatively soon.  At this rate I'm not sure it will be in the direction that I'm looking for.  Still three weeks to go in the June option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and is still making its way down to the 200 day moving average.  It still has yet to touch the lower Bollinger band which would be a signal to try the SPY June puts.  However that is not advisable now with the recent breakout to the upside in the S&P.  Also some of the small stock indexes are on the verge of making new all time highs.  Unless things break down there to form double tops, the trend is up.  Gold seems to have rallied enough today to keep the monthly candlestick chart from looking too bearish.  But the action this week in the gold shares wasn't all that good.  Although the GDX June call trade that I put on is showing a small profit, I don't have a lot of confidence in this trade at the moment.  The gold shares do remain short term oversold though so there is some hope.  We'll just have to wait and see for now.  Plenty to go over this weekend with the various charts.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night to finish the month.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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