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Thursday, May 21, 2020

The Dow fell 101 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The economic data was weak as expected.  The S&P 500 remains short term overbought.  I'm still hoping that it hits the 3000 level for a chance to buy the SPY June puts.  The market has moved sideways since the big jump up on Monday.  My thinking is that tomorrow will be quiet ahead of a long holiday weekend.  The underlying condition of the pandemic virus in control hasn't changed.  GE was up a few cents and the volume is still good.  Gold fell $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost about a point.  Volume was light.  Both of these indexes finished well off of their lows for the day as any selling in the gold shares is met with buyers.  I'm leaving my open order out there for the GDX June calls.  However it will take more of a drop to get filled.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over but they are not even close to getting oversold.  I'll be patient as far as putting this trade on for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX moved up slightly today.  The Bollinger bands here are starting to contract, implying that a big move is coming one way or the other.  If we do somehow touch the lower Bollinger band in the coming days, I'll be trying the SPY June puts.  Premiums do remain high due to the extra week in the June option cycle.  But I think it would be worth the risk with the technical backdrop that we are seeing now.  I could be wrong of course and often am.  Gold needs to hold the $1680 level if it does get back there to remain in a trading channel.  My guess is that it won't go that low as the money continues to flow there on any decline like the gold shares.  A break of that level would certainly change things but I don't see that happening at the moment.  Watching and waiting is the strategy for now.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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