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Friday, May 01, 2020

We moved lower to begin the month of May as the Dow fell 622 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Poor earnings guidance will be the excuse for todays decline.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P 500 and they have room to move further.  I expect more weakness in the beginning of next week.  Unfortunately none of my orders for the SPY May puts were filled.  There may be another chance for this idea if we see some near term strength but I doubt that will happen.  It's just another missed trade.  At least the idea was on the right path.  GE fell over 1/4 on heavy volume.  Gold bounced back and the futures were up $15.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was light here.  I did place an overnight order for the GDX May calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try this again on Monday.  The gold shares did have a one day reversal to the upside today, opening lower and closing higher.  I might be too late with this idea as well.  There's only two weeks left in the May option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX did move up today but not as much as expected given the severity of the decline.  I'm not sure what that means.  I'm still in the longer term bearish camp though.  The weekly candlestick chart for the S&P looks ominous with a bearish shooting star for this week.  Combine that with the gap opening lower that we saw today and it isn't a stretch to say that we're heading lower.  How to profit from here is the question.  The volume on the gold shares today wasn't inspiring and that could be an issue for buying the calls going forward.  I'm going to have to consider this and other things over the weekend.  It appears that the train has left the station for the two trades that I had in mind.  I'm not a fan of chasing things but sometimes it does work out.  Some foreign markets were closed for May day but those that remained open were lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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