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Friday, May 08, 2020

Depression level unemployment but the market doesn't care as the Dow soared 455 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The jobs report was horrible as expected but the market ignored it.  My SPY put trade got killed as it was a loser from the open this morning.  Actually it was a loser from the start when I placed it yesterday.  The loss was 70%.  I had it in my mind to be short ahead of the employment report and it cost me.  The technical basis for the trade was iffy.  Or maybe it just wasn't there.  Yesterdays rise should have been a clue as I've seen it before.  The market has a tendency move on the jobs report as it does the day before.  Now what was I thinking?  The short term technical indicators were mid-range which implies things could go either way.  It was not a good technical set up.  But I did the trade anyway.  I could not save myself from myself.  I think that I was just anxious to put on a trade because I hadn't in a while.  That was just plain stupid and it cost me.  Back to the markets, the Dow was stronger than the overall market today in a switch from the recent pattern.  Not yet completely overbought for the major averages.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains good.  Gold fell about $15 on the futures as the weak jobs numbers did not have the usual effect here.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares continues to show strength but remain very overbought.  I would like to perhaps try a trade here with them but should probably go out to the June option cycle.  Being patient and waiting for them to get oversold would be a good idea as well.  Mentally I'm doing OK despite the losing trade.  I'm pretty sure that I know what wrong there and it's my own shortcomings.  The entry and exit were not important as the overall mental state of mind I was in was the overwhelming factor in determining that loss.  That can be fixed by adhering to strict rules if I'm able to follow them.  The battle is really with oneself at times in the game and nothing more or less than that.  I was not up to the challenge this time around despite the facts that surrounded that trade.  The VIX has now touched its lower Bollinger band.  Combine that with the oversold short term technical condition of this indicator and you have the recipe for a decline in stocks.  We'll see if that occurs next week.  Will I be able to try and take advantage of it?  We'll see.  Right now I doubt it after the mistake of the most recent attempt.  However I'll regroup over the weekend and go from there.  The overall economic backdrop hasn't changed.  The pandemic virus remains and states are trying to open up for business but it's going slowly.  The US/China soap opera is back to the forefront.  Last night the two had a trade talk on the phone and it was the excuse for the S&P futures rallying overnight.  Today Trump threw some cold water on that with one of his comments but the market ignored it.  But we won't ignore the markets reaction.  Previously something like this would have caused volatility to soar.  Today it meant nothing.  Take note.  I'll be going over the charts as usual this weekend and try to come up with something for expiration week.  Europe and Asia were higher to close out the week as money is heading into stocks around the world again.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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