Wednesday, April 01, 2020
We had a gap to the downside today and the Dow fell 973 points on very heavy volume. The volume isn't as crazy as it has been but it is at least 50% more than usual. The advance/declines were 13 to 1 negative. This could turn the summation index sideways for now. We had beginning of the month outflows instead of inflows. I can't see things getting any better with unemployment numbers due in the next couple of days. Could be headed towards a retest of the recent lows here. The V shape recovery on the daily charts just ended. SPY did not make it back up to where I would have liked to try the puts. On the sidelines there for now. GE lost 7/8 on good volume. Gold bounced back around $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher as well. The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained a point. Volume was light. I left in my open orders for the GDX calls. However I'm considering just getting some GDX April calls because though overbought, the short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back up here. It's a predicament to be sure because waiting for the gold shares to get oversold is the prudent choice. However there is a potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts for the gold shares. With only 2 weeks to go in the April option cycle, the risk would be pretty high. I'll consider this idea again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX remains over 50 and did not even have much of a move today despite the huge loss. I'm actually at a loss to try and figure out what this indicator means anymore. I suppose the only thing I can glean from it is that volatility is here to stay for a while. The gap down today for the major stock indices says to me that we're going lower again in a hurry. Only a reversal to the upside tomorrow would change my mind about that. The short term technical indicators for the S&P are looking like they are turning back over to the downside. The pandemic virus isn't getting any weaker in the US. The panic in the markets seems to have subsided but we don't have any sustainable rallies yet. We got a nice bounce for sure but that is now history. Retesting the recent low seems to be the next order of business. The gold shares have held up here even though gold itself took a pretty good nosedive. Perhaps that will be the next trade for me tomorrow. We'll see. Europe and Asia were both lower last night. Expect more of the same tonight. We'll see how things pan out tomorrow.
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