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Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 772 points on heavy volume but lighter than what we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were around 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  We are back to the 2750 level on the S&P 500, which was the stopping point yesterday.  The market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  I would like to try the SPY April puts but also know we could continue to run here.  2800 would be a 50% retracement and if the VIX reaches its 50 day moving average if we get to 2800, then I'll try the SPY puts.  If not I'll simply continue to stay on the sidelines.  Tomorrow is the last day of a holiday shortened trading week and I would expect many to be leaving early or not showing up at all.  That could skew the trading.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume.  GDX is stalling at its 50 day moving average.  There are not a lot of sellers here though as the light volume indicates.  Overbought for GDX though and I'm going to try and wait for it to get oversold before trying the May calls.  That may or may not happen though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is close to hitting its 50 day moving average and another day or two like today will put us there.  That will make things interesting in my mind as I will probably attempt trading the SPY April puts.  Only six days to go in the April option cycle.  A light volume rally tomorrow would be the ideal scenario to set this trade up.  But the market rarely, if ever, cooperates.  The risk is also pretty good with little time remaining and option premiums still overpriced due to the recent volatility.  I'd also like to try the GDX calls again at some point.  But volume has dried up there for now and it appears that sideways is going to be the trend there for now.  That would certainly help the option writers, as most of the premiums would continue to lose value as time goes on.  Those who purchased expecting the huge moves that we've seen recently in GDX to continue would be paying the price.  I'm trying to remain patient there for now.  Europe and Asia were both generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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