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Tuesday, April 07, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the downside for the Dow and many of the major stock indexes.  The Dow lost 26 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were less than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Early on the Dow sported a 900 point gain.  So you can see that selling took up most of the day.  It looks like 2750 is the near term top for the S&P 500.  If we get back there it's the spot to try the SPY April puts.  May already be too late though.  That trade is on my radar but the premiums remain pretty stiff.  We are short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the S&P.  GE lost twenty cents with a downside reversal as well.  Gold followed suit as well, opening higher and closing lower.  The futures there fell around $10 after being much higher earlier.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Ideally I'd like to see the gold shares pull back here and then take a position in the GDX May calls.  Markets rarely cooperate though.  Overbought here as well on some of the short term technical indicators.  GDX remains on the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts.  A problem here is that I'm seeing this pattern discussed in the media when it comes to gold.  Sometimes when everyone sees and starts talking about the same thing it doesn't come to fruition.  I guess I'd like to see another right shoulder form here to scare off some of the participants.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was only up slightly today and we still haven't made it down to the 50 day moving average.  Oversold here now but there is a chance that it simply stays that way.  Or not.  I'm having a tough time figuring out what this indicator is doing lately.  We now have bearish candlesticks on the daily charts of most of the major stock indices.  This implies some near term weakness.  there's only a couple of days left in this weeks trading.  Thursday could be an out the door early affair as well before a long weekend.  The market is still at the mercy of the next pandemic virus headline, either good or bad.  We are seeing the summation index and other technical indicators coming up off of extremely oversold readings and that's a plus.  Perhaps sideways is the most we can hope for in the near term as well because the market really seemed to run out of gas today.  There is still plenty of money to go around again as far as I can tell.  The liquidity problems that caused the recent massive selling have ebbed for now.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

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