Tuesday, April 21, 2020
The decline continues as the Dow fell 631 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to stall at the zero line. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today. Perhaps the rally has ended as the short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major averages. We should know by the end of the week. The oil market has collapsed and that isn't being viewed as a good thing. Some of the up trend lines from the end of March have been broken in the major averages. I'd expect lower prices are coming but in this market, who knows? GE was off a few cents and volume was lighter than it's been. Gold was off over $10 and the US dollar was a bit higher on todays session. The XAU lost 1 1/8 while GDX had a fractional drop. Volume was light again. The fact that the gold shares continue to hold up despite a drop in gold is bullish. There is no widespread selling and buyers are stepping in on any drop. I'm leaving my open order for the GDX May calls out there. The premiums are still very high here though. My guess is that we'll be breaking through the 32 level in GDX sometime soon. I hope to have a bullish position on when that occurs. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a slight bump up today and closed above the 50 day moving average. There is plenty of room for the technical indicators on the VIX to continue to rise. It is probably too late to try the SPY puts for May but the premiums do remain sky high. There is plenty of time left in the May option cycle but it appears that the ideal time for the puts has passed. Of course things could turn right back up tomorrow but I do believe that the steam is coming out of the recent rally. I could be wrong but I don't think so. The pandemic virus remains and the economic numbers that will be coming out will not be good. Combine that with earnings numbers that will miss by a lot and that isn't the recipe for the bulls in theory. I do like the price action in the gold shares and do believe that my next trade will be on the long side there. As always the timing of the entry comes first and then the management of the trade follows. But for now, patience. Europe and Asia were lower overnight as the selling in stocks is worldwide at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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