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Monday, April 20, 2020

Lower today as the Dow fell 592 points on heavy volume but lighter than what we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues moving up.  Nothing new in the news with the exception of oil coming under intense pressure.  Plenty of supply with no demand there.  The Dow was much weaker than the overall market as well.  The S&P remains short term overbought and I'll consider the SPY May puts if we can move back up towards the 290 level there.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold bounced back a dozen and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 2 1/8, while GDX gained over 3/4.  Volume was very light.  I did place an open order for the May GDX calls but it will take some selling to get this filled.  GDX too remains short term overbought.  With the ongoing pandemic virus, I don't see any signs of wholesale selling for gold in the near future.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average.  The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up.  So there is a chance that perhaps we'll see some weakness for stocks in the near term.  However the NASDAQ remains a leader and with that being the case I don't expect any extended drop for equities right away.  But that's just a guess as usual.  We still have plenty of lousy earnings coming in the next few weeks.  There is also plenty of time in the May option cycle as it has just begun.  So probably being patient now is the prudent thing to do.  I'm hoping for a run to 290 on the SPY but the market rarely cooperates with anybodies plans.  I suppose it's just watch and wait for me at this point.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

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