Friday, April 24, 2020
The Dow added 260 points today on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I had thought we would be heading lower today but was wrong once again. The S&P 500 closed above its 50 day moving average and the short term technical indicators moved back up. I'm still not convinced that this is a rally that can go much further. But you have to listen to price and if we make a new recovery high here soon perhaps my thinking is wrong. It seems to me that there are a lot of headwinds for the market to contend with at the moment. We'll see how it goes next week. GE was off 1/4 on very heavy volume. Gold fell as profits were taken in my opinion. The futures lost about $8 and the US dollar was lower on the day. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was average. Any selling in the gold shares finds buyers before the end of the day. Overbought and staying that way for quite an extended period. I'm thinking that I should just buy some GDX May calls because it doesn't seem like there will be any sustained selling. It is a dangerous way to think but in todays environment, gold is king. There's also no overhead resistance for GDX until we reach 40. Right now it's at 34. Yes the options are pricey but there's still three weeks to go in the May option cycle. I really do not like to chase things though. I still have an open order out there for the GDX May calls but it would take quite a drop to get it filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a pretty good drop today and it rolled all of the short term technical indicators back down. I'm now thinking of trying the SPY May Puts if the VIX reaches its lower Bollinger band at the 31 level. Just a thought for now, I'll have to research it over the weekend. I guess the one thing that we certainly know for sure is that gold and the gold shares are in an uptrend. I suppose I should probably just jump on board there. It's another thing to ponder over the weekend. The pandemic virus remains the key story and that is not about to change. Europe and Asia were generally lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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