Friday, April 03, 2020
We closed out the week with a small loss as the Dow fell 360 points on the now usual very heavy volume. Yes, 360 points is considered small in todays market atmosphere. The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is basically moving sideways here. The employment report was worse than anticipated. The market was lower for much of the session but had a decent bounce in the final half hour. I suppose the question remains whether we are going to go down and test the recent lows or will we put in a double bottom? The short term indicators for the S&P look like they want to roll over here but they haven't yet. I also think that sideways is a possibility with the way the Bollinger bands are starting to move. But that's just a guess on my part. We're still at the mercy of the pandemic virus. The economy has come to a halt and the market is still in the process of determining what that exactly means. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy. Gold was up $14 on the futures and the US dollar had a gain as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. They have stopped at the neckline of the potential reverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily charts. The last two candlesticks there look like potentially putting in a short term top here. With gold up and the gold shares not following, that's a negative. The light volume also shows that the interest is all of a sudden lacking here. The Bollinger band movement here looks the same as the S&P. Which implies that perhaps sideways is the way to go here as well. I did cancel my remaining open order for the GDX May calls. I still like this idea for now but will try and wait for the short term technical indicators to get oversold. They remain overbought at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower and closed below the 50 level today. The VIX going down along with price defies the usual relationship. That is one of the reasons that I'm not getting a good handle on what's going on. The VIX is getting oversold though and that could mean a decent move lower for stocks in the near future. Or not. I'm not in any hurry to trade the SPY right now as the option premiums remain elevated for both calls and puts. I don't have a good signal here either way too. I'll check the charts over the weekend and perhaps I can come up with something. Europe and Asia finished out the week lower. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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