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Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The market powered higher today as the Dow gained 532 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 8 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The 1st quarter GDP report was negative and the market didn't care.  Earnings reports were lackluster and the market shrugged it off.  The Fed kept rates where they are and promised to do whatever it takes to keep the economy going.  Which basically means printing more money.  I was looking for some selling but I was wrong.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY May puts and replaced it at a higher strike price.  I still think that this rally is on its last legs as we have remained overbought for weeks on some of the short term technical indicators.  Now I might change my mind overnight but some of my work says we're at a near term top.  GE lost almost 1/4 on extremely heavy volume.  No good earnings news to report there.  Gold bounced around and finished with a slight gain on the session.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose almost 1/4.  Volume was light.  It appears that the consolidation in the gold shares is done and they are poised to go higher.  They too are overbought now for an extended period of time.  Perhaps I should keep my focus here instead of the SPY.  That said, we are pretty far away from the 50 day moving average for GDX and a revision to the mean there is inevitable at some point.  Money does continue to flow into the gold stocks though and I cannot ignore that fact.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and continues lower.  This particular condition will not last forever either.  The McClellan oscillator is also very overbought now in the short term.  But I can't ignore the fact that the market continues to power higher and the Fed has provided the liquidity to keep things going.  The market will go where it wants regardless of what I might think it should do.  I also do think that the S&P 500 is in the 5th and final wave up from the low in March.  The S&P also closed right near the final Fibonacci retracement level.  However other indices such as the NASDAQ have already blown by their retracements.  I also don't want to be guilty of just putting on a trade for trading sake because I haven't made one in a couple of weeks.  I'll consider everything again overnight.  Europe and Asia were higher last night as money flows into stocks around the world for now.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight news.  

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