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Thursday, April 16, 2020

The Dow was lower for much of the day but did manage to eke out a gain of 33 points on good volume but lighter than we've seen lately.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues to move up.  Jobless claims remained in the millions today and we sold off early after opening higher.  The market went back and forth much of the session.  The NASDAQ and the S&P were very much stronger than the Dow.  My thought was today would be a negative session and it wasn't.  We are still at the mercy of the pandemic virus and there is no change there.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now but I am favoring the puts going forward.  The option premiums remain elevated though.  GE was down another 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  We are just about at the March lows here.  Gold was a bit lower on the futures with the US dollar higher again today.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was light.  I'm looking at the May GDX calls but will wait until at least next week to purchase them.  Remaining short term overbought on the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains clinging to its 50 day moving average and continues to be oversold.  I'll be looking for a rise in the VIX and a decline in the overall market during the May option cycle.  That's my prognosis at the moment.  The economic data should continue to be weak.  The current earnings season should disappoint to say the least.  I still like the gold shares but they are certainly due a rest.  The money flow into gold has been pretty consistent and I don't see that stopping anytime soon as long as the pandemic is at the forefront.  Option premiums do remain high though.  I'm going to let tomorrow pass and take it from there.  Asia was lower and Europe slightly higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow on options expiration Friday.

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