Thursday, April 02, 2020
The Dow traveled back and forth today and finished with a gain of 466 points on very heavy volume. the advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving sideways. The new claims for unemployment were sky high but the market was still able to manage a nice gain. There was no downside follow through to yesterdays losses. My guess is that we'll now go back to the upside from here. Perhaps we will even make it back to the 2800 level on a 50% retracement. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. Of course tomorrow could change everything once again but I don't think that it will. My guess is that the summation index is not going to turn around and go lower than -3000. Sideways isn't out of the question for the market here either. GE was off about 1/8, volume remains pretty good. Gold rallied today as the futures gained $35. The US dollar was higher too. The XAU rose 3 1/2, while GDX was up over a buck. Volume remained light. So we had gold drop pretty good a couple days ago but the gold shares did not and today gold had a decent rally but the gold shares didn't rally as much. Not sure what is going on here. The inverse head and shoulders patterns remain on the XAU and GDX. Haven't broken through the necklines yet. If we do so on heavy volume it might pay to just jump on board. At this point it does not look like the gold shares will get oversold on the daily charts to take another position on the long side there. I canceled one of the open orders that I had for the GDX calls. I left open the call trade for the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The smaller stocks didn't act as well as the Dow and the S&P today. We'll see if that means anything. The VIX continued lower and it's almost back down to 50. Still not close to the 50 day moving average though that comes in at 37. Getting oversold but not completely there yet. We'll get the March jobs numbers tomorrow, can't see how they will be any good. The market is focused on other things at the moment in my view. I'd expect things to go either way, that's the kind of game it is for now. Just a couple of weeks left in the April option cycle. The SPY option premiums remain overpriced with volatility premium. I suppose that I'll just have to be patient for now. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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