Tuesday, April 28, 2020
We were positive for much of the session but the market dropped hard in the final half hour. The Dow lost 32 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index continues higher. It was a one day reversal for most of the major indexes as we opened much higher but closed lower. The overall market was lower than the Dow. My open order for the SPY May puts wasn't filled. We did make it to the 291 level on the SPY, which is the final retracement target. At this point I'll simply have to wait and see if there's any upside tomorrow and the order may get filled. I'm looking for lower prices though as the GDP report will not be good. We'll get the Fed announcement later in the day. Combine those events with plenty of earnings and it has the potential to be quite a trading day. GE gained over 1/3 and the volume was heavy. Gold finished slightly lower and came up off of its worst levels of the day. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU and GDX once again had slight fractional moves one way of the other on light volume. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls. The pattern on GDX looks just the same as it did a couple weeks ago. A rise followed by a sideways consolidation before heading higher again. This implies another leg up coming soon but the options already seem to be pricing this in. GDX remains overbought on a short term basis all the way around the indicators. It's probably best at this point to wait for at least some kind of pullback before trying the calls here again. The problem with that strategy is that in this kind of bull run for gold, you don't necessarily get the pullback that you're waiting for. So that's where I'm at regarding the GDX calls at the moment. I'm considering going out to the June contract but that has its own problems, with higher premiums the main obstacle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off of its lower Bollinger band today and we saw a decline in equity prices. That fits the plan. I suppose that I'll hope for a little sideways movement in this indicator with a rise in equity prices to get my SPY May put order filled. However hope is not a trading strategy. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and a decline is imminent in my view. It will probably manifest itself tomorrow on the weak GDP number. We'll see. If for some reason we don't see a drop tomorrow, then perhaps I'll have a chance to purchase some index puts before the end of the week. The game is never easy. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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