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Monday, April 06, 2020

The market powered to the upside in this shortened trading week as the Dow soared 1627 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 10 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  Hopes that the pandemic virus is beginning to stabilize was the excuse for the rally.  But there is no actual confirmation of this.  The market runs on fear and greed.  Today greed had its day at the plate.  Getting short term overbought for the major stock averages but there's still room to go a bit higher in the near term.  Perhaps I'll consider some SPY April puts if we get to 2700 on the S&P.  Definitely will consider some if we make it to the 50% retracement level of 2800.  The liquidity problems that were apparent just a little while ago seem to have evaporated.  GE was up 1/2 and the volume remains heavy.  Gold surged higher as the futures rose $60 on the August contract.  The futures have broken the neckline on the reverse head and shoulders pattern.  This implies much higher prices coming in the future.  The US dollar was a bit higher today as well.  The XAU climbed 5 points, while GDX  added 1 1/3.  Volume picked up to the upside.  With the futures breaking through today it now appears that the gold shares should be next despite being overbought.  I'm in a quandary as whether to simply get some GDX calls here or wait for the indicators to get back to oversold.  The near term move higher for the gold shares has already begun.  However if the reverse head and shoulders pattern is valid, there is a lot of room to run.  And I mean really quite a lot of room.  I would not want to miss out on that.  So that is the current dilemma.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to grind lower but we're not to the 50 day moving average yet.  That would be another logical spot to attempt the SPY April puts.  However we cannot rule out that the market will simply continue to trade higher from here considering the distance that most of the major averages are from their 50 day moving averages.  The fact that the over the counter shares continue to show better relative strength is another factor in the bulls favor in the short term.  We've had a dramatic decline, a bounce, a minor consolidation and now we're heading higher again.  It really seems to me that the bulls are getting back to being in charge again.  Not that could all change tomorrow but I don't think that it will.  Governments around the world are printing so much money that it has to find a home somewhere.  That's my best guess as to what's going on at the moment.  Because the earnings coming up and down the road will not be any reason to get excited about most companies.  Near term employment news won't show much enthusiasm either.  But the market goes where it wants to.  Asia was mixed with Europe higher to begin the week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

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