Wednesday, April 15, 2020
The Dow fell 445 points on heavy volume. We were off over 700 at one point. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving higher. As expected the economic data out today was very weak. The pandemic virus will be affecting whatever is being reported by the government and individual companies. The market reaction was negative from the start but not as bad as it could have been. My SPY April puts showed a decent profit early on. However as the day progressed the market moved back up. Combine that with the time and volatility premium getting sucked out of the options as the day went on and my overall results were not as good as planned. I did have a stop loss order in for the SPY trade that I adjusted upward and it was hit. The gain was 45% but it easily could have been double that had I realized what was going on. The decline was weak as it was not being led by the NASDAQ. We started to reverse back up mid-morning and that should have been my cue to dump the trade. Especially with only two days to go before expiration. I would have been better off not having the stop loss order in because I could have gotten more out of the trade if I held it until the close. Once again my trading tactics were not up to par during the heat of the battle. Good entry on this trade back a lousy exit once more. I did not want to hold the trade for another day with the way the market action was intra-day. But I would not be surprised if we are lower again tomorrow. GE was off 3/8 and the volume was heavy. Gold lost $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher. If we're lucky, gold will move back down to the neckline breakout point and we'll get a chance to try the GDX May calls. The XAU fell almost 2 points, while GDX shed 5/8. Volume was light and the gold shares climbed back from their lowest levels of the day. I do like the GDX May calls for the next trade if the short term technical indicators can work off some of their overbought condition. The gold shares have moved pretty far in a hurry and do deserve a rest in my opinion. That said, if GDX can clear the 32 level there is no overhead resistance after that until it reaches 40. Mentally I'm feeing disappointed in the SPY trade that I closed out today. I guess I just wasn't ready for the speed of trading the SPY, especially with only 3 days remaining in the option cycle of a volatile market. I just wasn't up to the challenge. No excuses here though. Trading isn't easy and that's part of the reality of the game. My exit tactics for the two trades were the opposite of what they should have been. I was quick to exit on the GDX trade when I should have taken my time and I took my time on the SPY trade when I should have been quick to exit. I guess you can't do any worse than that. At least the entries were somewhat OK or I probably would have lost money on them. The VIX was a bit higher and is now hanging around its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators remain oversold. We should see a decent decline again when the indicators start to move back up. With only a couple of days left in the week I suppose I'll be watching and waiting. The risk of attempting another trade this week may not be worth it. Plus the short term trading really isn't my strong suit. Europe and Asia were lower overnight and we should see more selling there tonight. We'll see what the market has in store for us tomorrow.
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