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Friday, April 17, 2020

The market took off to the upside today as the Dow gained 704 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We had a nice gain from the start and then climbed to double that in the final hour.  Opening back up the US for business was the excuse for todays rally but that hasn't even happened yet.  The Dow was the leader today, with the NASDAQ gaining less than half as much percentagewise.  So we may not be out of the woods yet but it is looking more and more like a V bottom.  The last Fibonacci retracement comes in around 2940 for the S&P 500.  We are a little over 50 points away from that.  That is the area if you are inclined to try the SPY May puts.  GE was up 5/8 on pretty heavy volume.  A potential double bottom is in here.  Gold got hammered as the stock market rallied.  The precious metal futures dropped forty bucks and closed below the $1700 level.  The gold shares sold off but finished above their worst levels on the day.  The XAU shed 1 7/8, while GDX dropped a point.  Volume was very light compared to what we've seen lately.  Light volume on the decline is bullish for the gold shares, along with a slight drop there compared with the price of gold.  Traders did not want to exit their positions here despite the drop in gold.  That could all change on Monday but I'll take it as a positive for my idea about the GDX May calls.  GDX does remain overbought though.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average and continues to be oversold.  I do believe at some point during the May option cycle this indicator will start to rise coinciding with a drop in the stock market.  Of course I'd like to own the SPY puts if and when that happens.  Entry timing will be the key but the option premiums do remain very overpriced in the current market environment.  The pandemic virus isn't going away but the market seems to know something that we don't.  It looks like all the money the Fed and Congress is sloshing around is making its way into stocks.  I'll check the charts over the weekend but the trend is up until proven otherwise.  The angle of ascent is pretty steep though and cannot go on indefinitely.  However with the NASDAQ leading the way, you kind of have to be a believer in this rally.  But as we've seen before sometimes things can change very quickly in this game.  Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days.  Europe and Asia rallied to finish the week too.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.   

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