Thursday, April 09, 2020
The Dow climbed another 285 points today on the once again insane volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. The McClellan oscillator readings are sky high and normally would imply a buy spike for stocks. That would imply a longer term rally. However it has moved so far, so fast, that I don't really know what to make of it. We have gone form the very extremes of oversold to the exact opposite on this indicator. So these aren't exactly what you'd call normal market times. Millions more claims for unemployment today but the market didn't care. We did make it to the 2800 level and then some on the S&P 500. It is as if the pandemic virus doesn't matter anymore. I did not buy the SPY April puts. Yes we are overbought but the momentum is staggering considering the economic backdrop in my opinion. 2900 is the last Fibonacci retracement level and that is my next target for a short. However I'm sure I'm not the only one looking at this and the option premiums remain overpriced. Perhaps looking at the May SPY puts is the proper strategy now. GE was off over 1/8 and volume picked up. Gold soared as the futures gained $55 on the June contract. It also broke through the inverse head and shoulders neckline, with a price objective that is much higher. The US dollar was down on the session. The XAU was up 8 1/2, while GDX added 2 3/4. Volume was good but not extremely heavy. The gold shares also broke through on the necklines of their inverse head and shoulders patterns. I decided to chase this move higher on the breakout. It isn't something that I normally do. I bought some GDX April calls. They are showing a profit as I was able to pick some up during the session and not at the highs. GDX is already overbought and I'll have to hope that it stays that way for a few days. There is plenty of money flowing into the gold shares but I'm sure that won't last forever. If we do see a snap back towards the neckline, which is possible, then I will go out to the May calls here. The breakout of the neckline here is targeting much higher prices and higher than I think it will actually go. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is just about at its 50 day moving average. That is the spot that I had targeted to get some SPY puts but now I'm hesitating. Being in the GDX call trade may be all I can pay attention to for the best results. That said, I will go over all my work during the long weekend and try and come up with a strategy for the SPY. My guess is that this is a bear market rally because I do not see how the market can continue to rise with horrible earnings about to be reported. But the market goes where it wants. I was surprised by the amount of volume that we saw today. The liquidity problems of a couple weeks ago have disappeared. Have they gone away for good? Time will tell on that but the Fed does have the money printing presses going at full speed. Only a week left in the April option cycle. I don't think that anyone will be selling their gold shares right away but I could be wrong. Money seems to be flowing into the precious metal with no end. But you have to be careful since things can change on a dime in this game. If a trade becomes too popular it has a tendency to go the other way. We cannot ignore the bullish pattern breakout though. I'll look things over this weekend and try to come up with a strategy for next week. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon ahead of a long weekend. Time for a break.
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