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Monday, April 13, 2020

Lower to begin options expiration week as the Dow dropped 328 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow was off around 700 at one point during the session.  The NASDAQ was up on the day which gives some hope to the bulls.  I am thinking about getting some SPY April puts on any strength tomorrow.  We have reached the short term overbought level on some of the technical indicators for the S&P 500.  I'm expecting that the economic data due out on Wednesday will be negative.  So there is perhaps a technical and fundamental reason to try this trade.  Or perhaps I'm just anxious to make a trade but I doubt that since I'm already in the GDX April calls.  I'll mull it over tonight.  GE was of 1/8 on good volume and also came off of its lows.  Gold continues higher, with the futures up over ten bucks.  The US dollar finished barely changed.  The gold shares were up as well with the XAU gaining 7, while GDX rose over 1 3/4.  Volume was good.  My GDX April calls are showing a profit.  I should probably sell them tomorrow because we have remained overbought here.  Gold and the gold shares have broken out from their reverse head and shoulders patterns on good volume.  That lets you know that the breakout is for real.  It won't last forever though and we'll look to a snap back to the breakout point to try the GDX May calls.  That snapback may or may not happen though, which makes the trading tricky as usual.  But that will be the game plan for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is practically on its 50 day moving average and should get there tomorrow on any upside.  Oversold here and staying that way for now.  I haven't exactly read this indicator correctly lately but I do think that the 50 day moving average would be a good place for the VIX to turn around if we are indeed in a bear market.  However it is possible that we're in a V shaped recovery for stocks and if that's the case the VIX will stay oversold for an extended period of time.  The pandemic virus remains at the forefront and doesn't appear to be going anywhere soon.  The Fed and the US government has thrown plenty of money around here and that seems to be what is keeping the market up for now.  Certainly economic activity has come to a standstill in most cases.  Upcoming earnings will no doubt be full of downside surprises.  So I really don't think that the current rally will have any staying power.  Whether or not things drop before expiration on Friday is another story.  Asia was mixed and Europe up overnight but some markets were closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

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