A mixed bag to finish out the week as the Dow gained 112 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ finishing in the red. I do not think that the major averages are putting in a double top here but I could be wrong. The lack of upside follow through from Mondays stellar gains is a concern. However the price action this week could have simply been option expiration driven although we did not see the usual upside bias. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not excessively so. The market does have a lot of noise in the background which probably won't be resolved until after the election. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward unless the summation index starts to fall. GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume. Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU was off two bucks, while GDX shed about 1/2. Volume was very light. I'm leaving my open order out there for the GDX November calls. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend to see if it is still viable. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow and that has led to lower prices going forward lately. I'm having a hard time figuring this indicator lately. The short term technicals here are still mid-range. Could go either way. An extra week built in to the November options raises the premiums paid. No real rush to do anything as I'm not exactly getting any clear signals. The market isn't fond of unkowns and we've got quite a few at the moment. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and try to figure something out. I am still a believer in the gold share calls. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

An interesting session as the Dow lost 20 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. We opened with a huge gap lower and the Dow was off over 300 points. We made our way back for the rest of the trading day. Jobless claims were up a bit and that was the handy excuse for the drop but the market was selling off overnight too. Not seeing the usual upwards bias for option expiration week and I've been waitng for that but it isn't happening. The short term technical indicators for the S&P have rolled over, however I'm convinced that things will turn around and head higher soon. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but the comeback tells me that buyers are out there. We'll see. No SPY trades for now. GE was up a nickel on average volume. Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well. A flight to safety? I certainly don't know. The XAU was off around 1 2/3, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume remains light. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. I am leaving my open order out there for the GDX November calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished well off of its highs for the session. The Bollinger bands here are getting closer and a big move in this indicator is implied. The short term technical indicators here are now mid-range. So things could theoretically go either way. I'm looking for higher stock prices from here but that's just my point of view. The market will go where it wants to. The overall backdrop remains the same and that probably won't change until after the election. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll close out the week with option expiration tomorrow.

Some more selling today as the Dow fell 165 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. As long as the summation index keeps moving forward, the path of least resistance is higher. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. Not seeing the usual upside bias for expiration week yet or perhaps it got used up on Monday. Not much to report as the backdrop remains the same. New stimulus blabbering back and forth with no resolution. The pandemic virus remains. Upcoming election nonsense with the market pretty sure of a Joe Biden victory. Still overbought on the major stock indices. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold bounced almost $20 on the October futures today as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU added two points, while GDX rose around 2/3. Volume remains light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it already may be too late. The gold shares are acting better than the precious metal and that's our cue to look at the long side. Short term overbought for GDX but if the rally is already in progress that won't matter. The Bollinger bands here are beginning to contract but aren't all the way there yet. Staying patient for now but might have to look elsewhere for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and that fits well for a change. The short term indicators there have turned up but thay look like they want to roll back over already. That would support higher prices. My guess is that whatever selling that we're seeing now will dry up rather quickly and the uptrend in stocks will continue. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Just some profit taking today in my mind as the Dow fell 157 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ was barely negative and that tells us that the decline is not the start of anything big. Still short term overbought for the major averages. It is expiration week which usually has a positive bias. So we'll see if things turn around back to the upside tomorrow and if we can get to new all time highs. GE was off 1/8 on lighter volume. Gold got clobbered today and that negates the breakout on Friday above the declining tops line. The precious metal futures were off almost $35 per the October contract. The US dollar was higher. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains light here. The gold shares finished well off of their lows for the session. A big drop in gold without a big drop in the gold shares is bullish going forward in my view. I did place an open order for the GDX November calls but it will take more of a decline to get filled. The short term technical indicators for GDX are still overbought so a decline here isn't out of the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with the market decline. The indicators here have started to turn back up but not dramatically so. I don't have any SPY trades in mind right now. I do think that we'll head higher into Fridays option expiration. The pandemic virus remains along with the stimulus deal bickering. The market continues to price in a Joe Biden victory. Asia higher and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The market continues to power higher as the Dow gained 250 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ is the leader here and that's bullish. We'll see how high things will run up into expiration on Friday. Getting close to new all time highs and at this rate we'll be there this week. Starting to just go straight up though and that never ends well. GE was flat on the day with average volume. Gold and the US dollar finished little changed on the day. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. I've decided against trying the GDX calls this week in the October option cycle. I will attempt them for the November cycle if the opportunity presents itself. I'm still a believer in the gold break out and will wait for the snap back to the breakout line before trying the calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not sleeping well. The VIX had a very slight gain but that still does not match up with todays market rally. Back to oversold here on the short term technical indicators. Pretty overbought for some of the S&P 500 indicators but not all. Perhaps we'll pause before getting to new all time highs as the potential double top pattern will appear. But that's just a guess as usual on my part. All indications in my mind are that we're going higher for a while. Earnings season is upon us and the market has made up its mind that Joe Biden is going to win the upcoming election. The pandemic virus remains but it appears that the market has learned to live with that. Europe and Asia were generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

No sellers to be found as the Dow rose 161 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is good news for the bulls. It was a good week for stocks and I think that the run up will continue into option expiration next week. Pricing in a Joe Biden victory and there is still plenty of money to go around. If they ever get a stimulus deal done we'll even go higher. At this rate we'll be hitting new all time highs in no time. Overbought now and staying that way for the major stock averages. GE was up over 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold took off to the upside today with the futures breaking through the down trend line that has been in effect since August. That is significant and I'll be getting some GDX calls on a snap back to the breakout if we get one. The October gold futures gained $36 as the US dollar got whacked. The XAU was up 6 2/3, while GDX added over 1 3/4. Volume expanded to the upside. I did try to purchase some GDX October calls today but my orders were not filled. Even though there is only a week to go in the October option cycle, todays price action lets you know that the gold shares are on their way up. The picture here has changed. I'm looking out to November as well here and will be buying some calls for that month in the near future. Perhaps as early as Monday if the opportunity presents itself. The original idea here has now been proven to be valid but we could not know for sure until gold broke through the declining tops line. Of course things can change just as quickly the other way around but I do believe what we've seen today for the gold shares is the beginning of a move higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and finally closed below the 50 day moving average. This says that the current rally will have legs and we'll most likely be going higher than anyone expects at the moment. We can also now look back and say that the recent decline was simply a correction in an ongoing bull trend. Once again, declines can be bought. Expiration week is upon us and higher prices are expected. I'll be looking at the SPY October calls over the weekend as well as the GDX calls in hopes of landing an entry point but it may be too late. Plenty to ponder in an effort to find a winning trade. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 122 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought on some of the techncial indicators for the S&P 500 but during rallies we stay that way. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We're still at the mercy of a negative headline but we saw how the market recently handled that. Factoring in a democratic win for the US election is what's going on now according to some circles. The market is always looking ahead. The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon though. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was pretty light. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls. With only six days to go in the October option cycle, I'm not sure that I want to try this trade anymore. I may reconsider that but I'm also now looking out to the November option cycle for GDX. I do think that gold has been in a corrective decline before it starts to move back up. The question is how long will that decline take? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. It touched its lower Bollinger band and bounced off. That bounce caused it to close back above the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held every drop in the VIX since the sharp decline for the market in the beginning of September. We'll see if it holds this time as well. I'm not exactly sure what that means for near term prices in stocks because the short term technical indicators are now moving lower here. I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We blasted back to the upside today as the Dow gained 530 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher and we'll take our cues from there. I certainly did not expect the market to come back so quick. Declines can be bought. SPY is heading back to the 342 level and it is getting short term overbought. But the market has simply shrugged off yesterdays bad news and we must respect that. So I'm tossing out the idea of trying the SPY puts at 342. That time has come and is gone in my mind. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold stabilized as the futures were up around $10. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/4. Volume remains light. I still have my open order for the GDX October calls out there. There's only seven days left in this option cycle. So the risk is certainly out there if the order gets filled. There's also seemingly no interest in the gold shares and that's been going on for a while. I'll consider what to do with this idea tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators are turning back down. That makes sense for a change. It also implies higher stock prices going forward but it won't be a straight line up. It appears that the market is pricing in a Joe Biden victory for the upcoming US presidential election. Who knows, maybe we'll make it back to new all time highs in the next couple of months. I'll be checking out GDX in depth tonight and go from there. Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Headline risk. It's always out there and today we got a taste of it. The Dow fell 375 points today on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Dow was up around 200 points with an hour and a half to go in the trading session. It was an uneventful Tuesday in October. All of a sudden the headline passed on the wire. The US president has canceled the stimulus talks until after the election. The market did not like that and decided to give up all of its gains and then some. I'm not sure how long the drop will last but we'll most likely get some follow through selling in the morning. We now have bearish dark cloud cover on the daily stock index candlestick charts. It is probably too late for the SPY October puts but we'll see. SPY did make it to 342 today but the market was cruising along and I did not want to try the puts. Opportunity missed or so it seems. GE lost 1/4 on heavy volume. Some kind of negative IRS news there. Gold got pummeled after the stimulus was placed on the back burner. The futures fell well over twenty bucks and back below the $1900 level. The US dollar was higher. The XAU dropped 5 3/4, while GDX fell 1 1/2. Volume picked up to the downside. I adjusted my open order for the GDX October calls and it hasn't been filled. I'm not sure this is the right trade to do now because the fundamental background has now changed with no stimulus bill in sight. The short term technical indicators have now also rolled over and are heading back down to oversold. Perhaps going out to the November option cycle has a better chance of showing a profit. Or not. I'll check things over again tonight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit distracted. Outside events are creeping in but I'll do my best to focus on what needs to be done here. The VIX was higher today as it should be. Once again the rising VIX yesterday with the rise in market prices preceded a drop. It is simply another reminder that the market knows all. There's still some room on the short term indicators to move up before the VIX is overbought. That means we should see some more weakness in the near future. Of course we could get another headline overnight and things could change again. There's plenty of room in the S&P 500 indicators to move lower though. Perhaps we'll make it back for a test of the recent lows. Or we may just move sideways from here. Maybe the market will simply move back up higher tomorrow from here but I doubt that scenario. If it sounds like there's a lot of uncertainty now, there is. I'll check things again tonight and take it from there. Europe and Asia were higher last night but that will probably change tonight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow took off to the upside to start the week and gained 465 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Declines can be bought in my humble opinion. The US president will be out of the hospitial tonight, so that worry is over for now. However we are always at the mercy of headline risk, sometimes more than others. The short term techncial indicators for SPY are getting overbought but not all the way there yet. 342 is a level to watch at the top of the Bollinger bands. That would be an area to try the October SPY puts but the overall trend is up and it would have to be a quick trade. GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light. Gold found a bid on the weaker US dollar. The yellow metal futures were up around ten bucks. The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX rose 5/8. Volume remains light here. The gold futures are up against a declining tops line and it will take some volume to get through it. I replaced my order for the GDX October calls at a lower strike price. If we get a decline there it may be filled but time is running out for this idea. Trying the SPY October puts may be the next trade that I do instead. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX finished a bit higher despite the rally and that doesn't make sense again here. The short term indicators have turned up but the market is advancing. The last time this happened it led to a decline but it took a while. I'm not getting reliable information from my analysis for the VIX lately. Some economic data due out this week but I think the market is waiting on the next stimulus deal. Perhaps it will be a sell on the news event since we are already moving higher. It could be that the market is now factoring in a Joe Biden victory for the November election. The polls are certainly pointing that way and I'd have to agree. I'm still looking for a winning trade in the October option cycle. It's out there somewhere. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well. Perhaps breathing a sigh of relief. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Headline risk returned as overnight it was reported that the US president had contracted the pandemic virus. The Dow had a huge gap lower at the open and was down over 400 points. It tried to recover throughout the session and finished with a loss of 137 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is barely moving higher. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. That implies that there is more downside to come. Volatility has taken center stage again. The jobs report was a bit light but it remained in the background. Two weeks to go in the October option cycle and I get the feeling that anything can happen. However the market did hold up as far as the Dow is concerned because things could have been a lot worse. GE was up over 1/8 on average volume. Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX shed around 2/3. Volume remains light. Gold bounced around but could not support a gain despite the new uncertainty thrown into the picture. We could just be stuck in a low volume sideways trend until further notice. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls but may try again next week if we continue to drift lower. Perhaps I'll look out to November but that option cycle has an extra week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and finished in the black but did come off of the best levels for the day. The short term technical indicators here have now turned back up. We are now at the mercy of the US presidents health and there is no predicting how that will go. It would not be out of the question to simply step aside here but I'll be looking for some kind of technical signal to trade off of. The market here to me seems pretty resilient. I'm still a believer for now that the decline is over but a sideways drift isn't out of the question. The short term technical picture for the S&P 500 looks like it wants to roll over but the medium term indicators appear to be trying to stabalize and perhaps turn back up. Trading here is choppy and being nimble is probably the best strategy for now. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. Most of Asia remains on holiday but Japan was lower. Europe finished mixed. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Another back and forth session as the Dow gained 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This should point he summation index higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ way out in front. This is a plus for the bulls. We'll see how things go tomorrow with the jobs report but the technical signs are pointing to higher prices regardless. There's also more talk of getting the stimulus deal done but that hasn't happened yet. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing up. The contracting Bollinger bands seem to limit the potential upside here but there is still room to go higher. Of course a big negative session would change the picture. GE was up a penny on average volume. Gold had a good session as the futures rose over $15. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume remains light here and that is not a plus for the gold bulls. With gold up good again and the gold shares languishing here, it isn't a strong environment at the moment. Nonetheless I've left my GDX October call order out there for now. It will still take a decline in GDX to get it filled. But this idea is running out of time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed higher today with a gain in stocks. It's still above the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a clear picture from the VIX lately. The SPY has almost had a 50% retracement of the decline. Perhaps this is where the recent rally will take a rest. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought though. I do think that the decline has run its course but as I said before that doesn't mean that we'll just go straight up. My indecision as to what to do here has me on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. I'm hoping to get some kind of solid signal before the October option cycle comes to a close. Most of Asia is on holiday for a week and there was an electronic malfunction in Japan that shut things down there yesterday too. Europe was mixed. We'll await the employment report tomorrow morning and see the market reaction is.

It was a wild ride to end the month as the Dow gained 329 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending sideways. Overnight the S&P futures sold off and the Dow was off over 300. The market roared all the way back by the open and was up over 500 points. With two hours to go the Dow suddenly dropped 400 points. It then bounced back to finish the day where it did. A lot of end of the month and quarter volatility. The overall market wasn't as strong as the Dow. I'm not exactly sure what it all means but we could have sold off today but didn't. The advantage is with the bulls. October starts tomorrow and we'll see how that goes. Jobs report on Friday should be a mover. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Gold dropped about $5 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on pretty light volume. The light volume shows the lack of interest here for the gold shares either way. I do still have an open order out for the GDX October calls. However this is one to be careful with because the monthly candlestick chart now for gold shows a topping pattern. This implies that gold will be heading lower or sideways at the least. The gold shares are short term oversold here and if we get a rollover here again on price, it could set up the call trade. It's a risky one however and time is running out day by day. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished a bit higher despite the rally in stocks. It once again bounced off of its 50 day moving average. If it could get through the 50 day moving average, then the rally would have some legs most likely. The S&P 500 is stuck at its 50 day moving average as well. I'm not really sure as to what to do with the SPY right now so I'm on the sidelines there. The short term techncial indicators here have moved up but not convincingly so in my mind. We'll know more as the week progresses. The pandemic virus backdrop remains along with the upcoming presidential election. The ongoing stimulus drama is in the picture as well. There's room for good news to drive things higher. Last nights presidential debate was viewed as a disaster but the market came back from the overnight drubbing. Perhaps that's a clue as to the underlying sentiment. That's a guess as usual. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

It was a back and forth session as the Dow fell 131 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. It looks like the backing and filling has begun but that could change tomorrow. The NASDAQ did not lead the way lower here and that is a plus for the bulls. We'll get the end of the month position squaring tomorrow before we head into October. Waiting for the market reaction to the jobs report at this point. The S&P is hanging around its 50 day moving average. If this continues, I might try the SPY October puts ahead of the employment report. We've come up about halfway on the short term techncial indicators for the S&P 500. GE was off a few cents on lighter volume. Gold continues higher, the futures rose $15. The US dollar was lower again. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. I did place another open order for the GDX October calls but it would take a decline to get filled. If GDX continues to move up I'll cancel the order. Today was a repeat of yesterday. Gold itself had a fairly good day but the gold shares didn't follow suit. That is not usually a sign of strength for the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished barely higher despite a drop in stocks. Once again this is a tough indicator for me to get a correct read on lately. I'm leaning towards the SPY puts again for a short term trade if things set up properly. I do not think that we're going to simply move higher from here to new all time highs again but I could be wrong. The summation index is trying to turn around and down trends lines have been broken on some of the major indices. However that could mean a sideways market for a while and not a sustained up trend. I suppose that at the moment I don't have as good a good handle on things as I'd like to. I'll leave the GDX call order out there for now and see what happens. Asia and Europe were mixed overnight. We'll finish the month of September tomorrow.

We had a gap higher at the open and the market took off from there. The Dow gained 410 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. Most of the major averages have now broken through their down trend lines. The recent decline has run its course for now. I do not think that we'll just go straight back up from here but weakness can probably be bought. The short term techncial indicators are pointing higher and are not yet overbought. I still do not have any SPY trades in the works. However if we continue higher and get short term overbought, I'd be willing to take a look at the puts there again. We'll see if we get a set up ahead of the jobs report on Friday. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rallied as the futures gained almost twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower. The XAU rose over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was pretty light. The rally in gold should have inspired more buying than what we saw today in the gold shares. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls but I think that I'll try again at a lower strike price. I get the feeling that the gold shares just may trade sideways here for a while in the October option cycle. That's a guess on my part. The October GDX calls all lost value today even though the GDX was higher. Time and volatility value is already starting to get taken out of these options. That's another reason why trading them may not be the best course of action. There also is a ton of resistance now after the recent decline. It will take quite a push to get through it and I don't know if that is something that will happen anytime soon. But if we drift lower from here I might take the chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off its 50 day moving average again and just moved slightly lower despite a huge run up in stocks. That doesn't exactly fit properly with the market action. Still oversold here and that's one of the reasons that I'm not completely bullish about where we go from here. The recent price action probably has a short covering element to it as well. But most of the short term indicators for the major averages have turned back up with room to run. So we'll have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for the near term. Perhaps that changes with the employment report later in the week but that's just another guess on my part. Some backing and filling before we go higher from here would not be out of the question. Europe and Asia were higher as well. We'll see how things trade tomorrow.

It was a good day for the bulls as the Dow climbed 358 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way higher and also broke through its down trend line. This index usually leads the way both up and down. The volume wasn't all that heavy though and it is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term techncial indicators have turned back up though. If we get some follow through upside on Monday, the market decline may be done for now. The S&P 500 hasn't broken its declining tops line yet but the indicators here have turned up as well. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was off $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Still oversold on the short term indicators for GDX. I've left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it hasn't gotten filled. I'll have to reconsider this idea over the weekend. There doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in the precious metal lately and the monthly candlestick chart for gold will show a topping formation come Wednesday when September has concluded. Three weeks left in the October option cycle and if I decide to pursue this trade it won't be one to hold too long. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a strong market. Still above the 50 day moving average and a break below there would also suggest a turn for equities. Hasn't happened yet. I stll don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but will look things over again this weekend. The backdrop remains uncertain with the continuing pandemic virus, upcoming US election and lack of a new stimulus bill. If an agreement on a stimulus bill would occur, that should be a positive for the market. If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would be bullish too. However none of this has happened as of yet and the trend is still pointing down. Hopefully we'll know more after Monday but that could just simply be a light volume affair. We're coming up to the end of the month next week so we will have to see how that plays out as well. I'll be going over the charts this weekend and we'll see what I can find. Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a bounce today as the Dow was up 52 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is heading lower. It was a back and forth session. We got 10 points away from the 3200 level on the S&P 500. So there is a chance that the decline is over. But the jury is still out on that. We are below the 50 day moving average on the S&P and the down trend line remains in effect for now. Oversold and staying that way. GE was off a nickel on good volume. Gold managed to stop dropping today as the futures rose five bucks and finished well off of their lows. The US dollar was slightly lower. The gold shares rallied, with the XAU gaining 5 1/8 and GDX up a point. Volume was average for lately. My open order for the GDX October calls was missed by a tick. I had adjusted the price higher overnight but it still wasn't filled. I'm still leaving it out there but it may be too late. The rise in the gold shares today says that the decline there is over in my mind because it was so much stronger than in gold itself. That is usually a positive sign. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated. Coming within a tick of being filled on a trade that I want to do is the reason. But it's happened before and it will happen again. At least the general idea is right for now. The VIX was just a bit lower today. There's still plenty of room on the short term technical indicators to rise and that would coincide with a drop in stock prices. So it is still a tricky call as to what is going to happen here. September is generally a negative month for stocks and this year is living up to that. I don't have any solid SPY trades in mind at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower last night. We'll see if they get a bounce tonight and we'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The down trend lines remain in effect as the Dow lost 525 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and if we get some follow through tomorrow it should hit a new low for the move. The S&P 500 is almost at 3200 and it will probably get there tomorrow as well. The McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today too. We'll need to see it stabalize or turn around here soon or it could get very ugly. I do not expect this decline to turn into a full on rout but the possibility is out there. We are oversold and staying that way for the major stock indices. Buyers are on the sidelines for now after yesterdyas appearance. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. Gold got pounded lower as the futures dropped forty bucks. The support at $1900 failed. The US dollar continued higher today. The XAU lost 9 3/4, while GDX fell 2 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. I left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it wasn't filled. Getting close though and I would have expected it to be filled by now. Support for GDX has been broken as well so why even attempt this trade? It looks like the trying to catch a falling knife syndrome. We've also broken down on the technical indicators where previous declines had stopped. I think if this order does get filled it will be an opportunity for some profits on the first bounce back from the decline of this week. Or gold and the gold shares could just continue to fall since the next support for the precious metal is at $1800. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. Mentally I'm still feeling tired as I haven't felt well all week. The VIX was higher today as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here still have plenty of room to run before reaching overbought. That says that the decline could be much longer than I am currently thinking. That would certainly spell trouble for any call side trades. So there is nothing wrong with calling off whatever I'm doing now and heading to the sidelines either. I'll consider this tonight as well. Asia was mixed with Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Higher today as the Dow gained 140 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. That's a plus for the bullish cause. We could see a continued bounce here and it is possible the decline is over for now but I doubt it. Resistance for the S&P comes in at the declining tops line and 50 day moving average at around 3350. That is the area that will tell the story and I'd say to keep an eye on that. We've got some economic data out this week but I think that the market is moving to its own beat for now. Also the Fed chair with some testimony before Congress, which happened today and continues tomorrow. GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains heavy. Gold was down about ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar continues higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I left my open order out for the GDX October calls. I also added another order at a different strike price since some of the indicators for GDX are where we've seen the recent declines in this index turn around. I canceled it before the close but may try again tomorrow. Gold is holding $1900 for now but with the climbing dollar the question is whether it will hold or not. I certainly don't know the answer to that but the short term technical indicators for GDX have reached oversold. This is the logical spot to try the calls. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower and that makes sense with an up stock market. Still above the 50 day moving average here with some of the indicators in oversold territory. It's one of the reasons that I don't think that we're done with the downside for the market. Today the NASDAQ barely broke through its declining tops line and closed just below the 50 day moving average. This index led the way down and it should lead the way back up, so it's soemthing to keep an eye on tomorrow. Gold has held $1900 and silver has held $24 support for now. I'll look things over again tonight but I'll probably be placing another order for the GDX October calls tomorrow. But it may be too late there as well. Plenty of time in the October option cycle for trading. What I want to avoid is being overconfident just because the last trade was a winner. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A steep drop for the Dow to begin the trading week but it could have been worse. The most watched index fell 509 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The Dow was off over 800 but a last hour comeback for stocks trimmed that loss. The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow and that is somewhat of a plus. The NASDAQ was almost in the black today and that may be a sign that things are overdone in the short term. The daily candlestick for the S&P 500 looks like a hammer and that would be bullish. However the measuring objective from the recent bear flag is much lower. Below what I perceive as initial support at 3200. More like around 3100 if the pattern fulfills its objective. I don't think that we'll get a chance to try the SPY puts again soon but I could be wrong. GE got clobbered and lost 1/2 on very heavy volume. The rally fizzled quickly there. Gold fell today too and the futures were off over forty bucks. The US dollar was higher. The XAU shed 6 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume picked up a little to the downside. Gold is trying to hold the $1900 level and whether or not it does will tell us where the gold shares are going. I did place an open order for some GDX October calls but we'll need to see more of a drop to get it filled. GDX is trying to hold support here at 39. The piching Bollinger bands imply a big move and it now could be to the downside. If that's the case, you don't want the calls. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX moved over the 30 level today but then fell back. Some of the short term techncial indicators here remain in the oversold range. So even with the recent volatility things haven't moved up to overbought. That could spell even more trouble down the road. Although I must admit that I haven't been able to read the VIX with any certainty lately. Even with todays late session rally, I still think that we've got more to go on the downside going forward. Option premiums are high since we just rolled into the October cycle. The volatility is adding premium as well. Gold did break the $1900 level today but then came back. That's the line in the sand. The GDX calls could be the next trade but it really needs close attention because there's a chance that things fall apart here for the metals. Perhaps the overall market as well but tomorrow will most likely tell us about that. Asia was lower and Europe had a very negative day. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.