Friday, October 09, 2020
No sellers to be found as the Dow rose 161 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving higher. The NASDAQ is leading the way and that is good news for the bulls. It was a good week for stocks and I think that the run up will continue into option expiration next week. Pricing in a Joe Biden victory and there is still plenty of money to go around. If they ever get a stimulus deal done we'll even go higher. At this rate we'll be hitting new all time highs in no time. Overbought now and staying that way for the major stock averages. GE was up over 1/8 on very heavy volume. Gold took off to the upside today with the futures breaking through the down trend line that has been in effect since August. That is significant and I'll be getting some GDX calls on a snap back to the breakout if we get one. The October gold futures gained $36 as the US dollar got whacked. The XAU was up 6 2/3, while GDX added over 1 3/4. Volume expanded to the upside. I did try to purchase some GDX October calls today but my orders were not filled. Even though there is only a week to go in the October option cycle, todays price action lets you know that the gold shares are on their way up. The picture here has changed. I'm looking out to November as well here and will be buying some calls for that month in the near future. Perhaps as early as Monday if the opportunity presents itself. The original idea here has now been proven to be valid but we could not know for sure until gold broke through the declining tops line. Of course things can change just as quickly the other way around but I do believe what we've seen today for the gold shares is the beginning of a move higher. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and finally closed below the 50 day moving average. This says that the current rally will have legs and we'll most likely be going higher than anyone expects at the moment. We can also now look back and say that the recent decline was simply a correction in an ongoing bull trend. Once again, declines can be bought. Expiration week is upon us and higher prices are expected. I'll be looking at the SPY October calls over the weekend as well as the GDX calls in hopes of landing an entry point but it may be too late. Plenty to ponder in an effort to find a winning trade. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to finish out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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