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Thursday, October 08, 2020

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 122 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Short term overbought on some of the techncial indicators for the S&P 500 but during rallies we stay that way. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We're still at the mercy of a negative headline but we saw how the market recently handled that. Factoring in a democratic win for the US election is what's going on now according to some circles. The market is always looking ahead. The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon though. GE was up 1/3 on good volume. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed again. The XAU gained 2 1/2, while GDX was up 2/3. Volume was pretty light. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls. With only six days to go in the October option cycle, I'm not sure that I want to try this trade anymore. I may reconsider that but I'm also now looking out to the November option cycle for GDX. I do think that gold has been in a corrective decline before it starts to move back up. The question is how long will that decline take? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. It touched its lower Bollinger band and bounced off. That bounce caused it to close back above the 50 day moving average. The 50 day moving average has held every drop in the VIX since the sharp decline for the market in the beginning of September. We'll see if it holds this time as well. I'm not exactly sure what that means for near term prices in stocks because the short term technical indicators are now moving lower here. I don't have any SPY trades in mind. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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