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Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Some more selling today as the Dow fell 165 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving up. As long as the summation index keeps moving forward, the path of least resistance is higher. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. Not seeing the usual upside bias for expiration week yet or perhaps it got used up on Monday. Not much to report as the backdrop remains the same. New stimulus blabbering back and forth with no resolution. The pandemic virus remains. Upcoming election nonsense with the market pretty sure of a Joe Biden victory. Still overbought on the major stock indices. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold bounced almost $20 on the October futures today as the US dollar was a bit lower. The XAU added two points, while GDX rose around 2/3. Volume remains light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it already may be too late. The gold shares are acting better than the precious metal and that's our cue to look at the long side. Short term overbought for GDX but if the rally is already in progress that won't matter. The Bollinger bands here are beginning to contract but aren't all the way there yet. Staying patient for now but might have to look elsewhere for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up again today and that fits well for a change. The short term indicators there have turned up but thay look like they want to roll back over already. That would support higher prices. My guess is that whatever selling that we're seeing now will dry up rather quickly and the uptrend in stocks will continue. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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