Friday, October 16, 2020
A mixed bag to finish out the week as the Dow gained 112 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ finishing in the red. I do not think that the major averages are putting in a double top here but I could be wrong. The lack of upside follow through from Mondays stellar gains is a concern. However the price action this week could have simply been option expiration driven although we did not see the usual upside bias. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not excessively so. The market does have a lot of noise in the background which probably won't be resolved until after the election. I'm still looking for higher prices going forward unless the summation index starts to fall. GE was up 3/8 on heavy volume. Gold lost a few bucks and the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU was off two bucks, while GDX shed about 1/2. Volume was very light. I'm leaving my open order out there for the GDX November calls. I'll revisit this idea over the weekend to see if it is still viable. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today despite a gain in the Dow and that has led to lower prices going forward lately. I'm having a hard time figuring this indicator lately. The short term technicals here are still mid-range. Could go either way. An extra week built in to the November options raises the premiums paid. No real rush to do anything as I'm not exactly getting any clear signals. The market isn't fond of unkowns and we've got quite a few at the moment. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and try to figure something out. I am still a believer in the gold share calls. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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