Monday, October 05, 2020
The Dow took off to the upside to start the week and gained 465 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Declines can be bought in my humble opinion. The US president will be out of the hospitial tonight, so that worry is over for now. However we are always at the mercy of headline risk, sometimes more than others. The short term techncial indicators for SPY are getting overbought but not all the way there yet. 342 is a level to watch at the top of the Bollinger bands. That would be an area to try the October SPY puts but the overall trend is up and it would have to be a quick trade. GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light. Gold found a bid on the weaker US dollar. The yellow metal futures were up around ten bucks. The XAU was up 2 3/4, while GDX rose 5/8. Volume remains light here. The gold futures are up against a declining tops line and it will take some volume to get through it. I replaced my order for the GDX October calls at a lower strike price. If we get a decline there it may be filled but time is running out for this idea. Trying the SPY October puts may be the next trade that I do instead. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The VIX finished a bit higher despite the rally and that doesn't make sense again here. The short term indicators have turned up but the market is advancing. The last time this happened it led to a decline but it took a while. I'm not getting reliable information from my analysis for the VIX lately. Some economic data due out this week but I think the market is waiting on the next stimulus deal. Perhaps it will be a sell on the news event since we are already moving higher. It could be that the market is now factoring in a Joe Biden victory for the November election. The polls are certainly pointing that way and I'd have to agree. I'm still looking for a winning trade in the October option cycle. It's out there somewhere. Europe and Asia were higher to begin the week as well. Perhaps breathing a sigh of relief. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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