Thursday, October 01, 2020
Another back and forth session as the Dow gained 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. This should point he summation index higher. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ way out in front. This is a plus for the bulls. We'll see how things go tomorrow with the jobs report but the technical signs are pointing to higher prices regardless. There's also more talk of getting the stimulus deal done but that hasn't happened yet. The short term techncial indicators for the S&P 500 are still pointing up. The contracting Bollinger bands seem to limit the potential upside here but there is still room to go higher. Of course a big negative session would change the picture. GE was up a penny on average volume. Gold had a good session as the futures rose over $15. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume remains light here and that is not a plus for the gold bulls. With gold up good again and the gold shares languishing here, it isn't a strong environment at the moment. Nonetheless I've left my GDX October call order out there for now. It will still take a decline in GDX to get it filled. But this idea is running out of time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX closed higher today with a gain in stocks. It's still above the 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a clear picture from the VIX lately. The SPY has almost had a 50% retracement of the decline. Perhaps this is where the recent rally will take a rest. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought though. I do think that the decline has run its course but as I said before that doesn't mean that we'll just go straight up. My indecision as to what to do here has me on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. I'm hoping to get some kind of solid signal before the October option cycle comes to a close. Most of Asia is on holiday for a week and there was an electronic malfunction in Japan that shut things down there yesterday too. Europe was mixed. We'll await the employment report tomorrow morning and see the market reaction is.
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