Tuesday, October 20, 2020
A bounce today as the Dow gained 113 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trending sideways. Still waiting on a stimulus deal and we should know before the open tomorrow. Todays upside was expected as we did have an oversold signal on one of the technical indicators that's usually reliable. The question now is was it a one day bounce or the beginning of something sustained to the upside? I'm inclined to believe the latter, as I think that some kind of deal will be reached and the market will rally. Just a week ago the talks had supposedly ended but we see where we are now. I guess the Tuesday deadline for the stimulus talks could be extended as well. We're dealing with politicians so you can't really believe anything that you hear. The market is held hostage to this nonsense for now but it too will pass. The S&P 500 technical indicators on a short term basis are mid-range. Could go either way here but I still think that we'll move higher from these levels this week. GE was up a nickel on lighter volume. Gold was up eight bucks as the US dollar was lower. The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX added 1/3. Volume remains pretty light. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. I guess the most I can hope for here is that GDX trades sideways for a while and perhaps the order eventually gets filled. Plenty of time in the November option cycle for GDX to get oversold though. That would be the reasonable and ideal time to try the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today despite a rise in the market again. This has spelled near term trouble for stocks lately but not long lasting. I have no idea what it means this time around. I haven't been able to wrap my head around what the VIX has been doing lately. One day it acts like it should and another it does the opposite. It is short term overbought and I would expect a drop in the VIX and a rise in stock prices in the coming days. That's my best guess right now. However my ideas on the market haven't been exactly correct lately and hence that's why I'm not trading the SPY right now. Not to mention the expanded option premiums due to the extra week in the November cycle. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what kind of announcement we get on the US stimulus package and take it from there.
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