Wednesday, October 21, 2020
It was an up and down session as the Dow fell 98 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The market is being held hostage by the political drama in Washington. Stimulus or no stimulus, deadlines passed and extended. It's a non stop government soap opera. The S&P 500 technicals are still mid-range so we'll wait to see which way they go. I'm still looking for higher prices in the near term. Of course I've been saying that for a week and it hasn't happened. No SPY trades in mind for now. GE lost a couple cents and the volume was pretty light. Gold found a bid as the futures were up around $15. The US dollar continued lower. The XAU rose two points, while GDX was up about 1/2. Volume remains light here. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there but it might be too late. The short term technical indicators for GDX are starting to turn around. This won't be a trade that I chase though. Either my order gets filled where I have it or I'll pass. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with lower prices and that's not the usual reaction either. We did not break the 200 day moving average to the upside here and we are at the top of a trend channel. So my thinking is that we'll be seeing a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward from here. The short term technical indicators have also started to roll over. If we get an announcement of a stimulus deal the market will have an excuse to rally. Hasn't happened yet. For now I'm trying to remain patient as we wait to see what the future holds. Still in the pandemic virus mode along with pre-election angst. We'll have a better picture after November 3rd hopefully. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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