Monday, September 28, 2020
We had a gap higher at the open and the market took off from there. The Dow gained 410 points on good volume. The advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index has stopped going down. Most of the major averages have now broken through their down trend lines. The recent decline has run its course for now. I do not think that we'll just go straight back up from here but weakness can probably be bought. The short term techncial indicators are pointing higher and are not yet overbought. I still do not have any SPY trades in the works. However if we continue higher and get short term overbought, I'd be willing to take a look at the puts there again. We'll see if we get a set up ahead of the jobs report on Friday. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold rallied as the futures gained almost twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower. The XAU rose over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was pretty light. The rally in gold should have inspired more buying than what we saw today in the gold shares. I canceled my open order for the GDX October calls but I think that I'll try again at a lower strike price. I get the feeling that the gold shares just may trade sideways here for a while in the October option cycle. That's a guess on my part. The October GDX calls all lost value today even though the GDX was higher. Time and volatility value is already starting to get taken out of these options. That's another reason why trading them may not be the best course of action. There also is a ton of resistance now after the recent decline. It will take quite a push to get through it and I don't know if that is something that will happen anytime soon. But if we drift lower from here I might take the chance. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced off its 50 day moving average again and just moved slightly lower despite a huge run up in stocks. That doesn't exactly fit properly with the market action. Still oversold here and that's one of the reasons that I'm not completely bullish about where we go from here. The recent price action probably has a short covering element to it as well. But most of the short term indicators for the major averages have turned back up with room to run. So we'll have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt for the near term. Perhaps that changes with the employment report later in the week but that's just another guess on my part. Some backing and filling before we go higher from here would not be out of the question. Europe and Asia were higher as well. We'll see how things trade tomorrow.
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