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Friday, September 18, 2020

We closed the week on a down note as the Dow fell 244 points on expiration very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trending lower. The overall market was once again weaker than the Dow. The Dow was off 400 during the session but the market made a comeback in the final hour and a half. It appears that the stock indices are trying to hold on here and not allow the bearish flag formation on the daily charts to trigger. I don't think that they'll be successful. Looking back on yesterdays SPY trade, holding on another day would have increased the profit but I simply didn't want to take the risk. In retrospect all trades could be better or worse. The important thing to remember is whether it's a profit or a loss you've got to let go and move on. Where we go from here is what matters and I think we're going lower. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. Gold gained five bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU fell 2 1/2, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume remains light here as the gold shares followed the overall market lower. The GDX October calls are on my radar now. If the overall market continues to drop, it should take the gold shares with it and that may provide the opportunity to try the calls. That's the best case scenario for now in my view. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with the market decline. This indicator has been giving a lot of conflicting signs lately. It's still holding above the 50 day moving average on the daily chart. The daily chart for the S&P 500 shows the technical indicators oversold on a short term basis. The weekly chart still has room to go lower on the technicals. We're rolling into the October option cycle on Monday. I still think that the S&P will make it down to the 3200 level over the next couple of weeks or sooner. If we somehow got a rally from here back to the top of the flag at the 3425 level I'd be willing to give the puts another shot. But I don't think that's going to happen. I wouldn't be surprised if we just head lower next week. We'll see what the market has in store for us. Option premiums are elevated with the move to the next trading month and the recent volatility. So there isn't exactly a rush to do anything here for now. I'll go over the charts again this weekend and see what I can find. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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