Friday, September 04, 2020
A down day to end the week but it wasn't as bad as it could have been. We did have a sharp sell off early on but the market fought back and the Dow finished with a loss of 159 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading lower. The Dow was off over 600 early on. Quite a week to start the month of September and there will probably be some more surprises along the way. The jobs report was a bit better than expected but it took a back seat to the overall stock market action. At least we now know the game has changed and I'll be looking to play the short side on the SPY trades near term. Volatility has elevated and it probably won't settle down immediately. I'll check things out this long weekend and go from there. GE was up a dime on good volume. The gold futures were slightly higher and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX was down 3/8. Volume was average. Once again the gold shares sold off and then came back to form another hammer on the daily candlestick chart today. I did place an order for the GDX September calls but it wasn't filled. Not oversold yet on a short term basis for the gold shares. Only nine days left in the September option cycle. My concern here is that the gold shares move sideways as they have been. That would not help taking a trade on here either way. We didn't see a flight to gold with the decline and that's a cause for concern as well for the long side. I may have to go out to the October option cycle for this idea. I'll know more after this weekend s research. Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts. Can't put my finger on it but probably has to do with missing the SPY September put idea. Although I do think that one still has a chance to work again depending on market price action. The VIX had a burst up but then turned around and closed lower on the session. The short term indicators here have now rolled over. Could mean a short term end of the decline. But it does appear that some damage has been done to the technical picture on some of the stock index charts. We'll see if the market can regroup next week. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to come up with a strategy for next week. Europe and Asia were lower to finish the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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