Monday, September 14, 2020
Expiration week started to the upside as the Dow gained 327 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a little over 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but is trying to turn around here. Whether or not it does will have a lot to do with where we're going near term. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the NASDAQ led the way. That is a plus for the long side here. Only four days to go in the September option cycle. High risk trading now but I do have an idea. If the S&P can make it up to the 3425 level, I'll try the SPY September puts. I'm going on the assumption that a bearish flag formation has occurred since the recent drop and that 3425 is the top of that flag. We'd have to get to that level in the next two sessions for me to try this idea. There's also a chance that we've finished the mild correction for stocks here and will now go back to test the recent all time highs. Time will tell on that. GE was up twenty cents on lighter volume. Gold added almost twenty bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU climbed 6 points, while GDX rose almost 1 2/3. Volume was light. I've missed the GDX September call trade but will look to try the October call options if we get back to oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and made it back to the 50 day moving average. This is the logical spot to try the index puts although the short term technical indicators are not yet completely oversold. I've set my targets as to where to try the SPY puts this week. We either get there by sometime on or before Wednesday or we don't. Another day like today would do it but the market will do what it wants. It's a risky idea to be sure but if the underlying prognosis is correct, it will work. We've got the Fed on Wednesday and it's possible that we'll be in a holding pattern until then. The pandemic virus continues. Some economic data due out this week including retail sales on Wednesday. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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