Wednesday, September 09, 2020
Got a bounce today as the Dow gained 439 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading down. The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls. However questions remain as the market did sell off in the final half hour. Has the decline ended and now it's back to rally mode? I don't think so but the market does go where it wants. Any trade from here on out in the September option cycle will be tricky. Obviously with the elevated volatility things can go right or wrong in a hurry. Nimble would be the word to describe how you have to trade things from here. I still favor the put side of things for now but I could be wrong. We will get some economic data in the next couple of sessions including inflation numbers. But I think that the market will be influenced more by its own price movement versus any data coming out. GE was up a couple cents on heavy volume. Gold rose around $20 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU climbed 6 3/4, while GDX added 1 3/4. Volume was about average. My GDX call order wasn't filled and this is another opportunity missed for now. I'm inclined to chase this move higher in the gold shares though. The contracting Bollinger bands here mean that the rally here has room to grow. The outperformance of the gold shares versus gold is another indicator of a plus for the long side now. I'll be keeping an eye on the October GDX calls. Septembers may be a little too risky now considering that GDX has already gained over 2 1/2 points from the low yesterday morning. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX moved lower today with the rise in prices and that makes sense for a change. The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the VIX. My trading idea here is to purchase some SPY September puts when the VIX gets back to its 50 day moving average. It's plenty risky though as it would take longer for the other indicators to give clear signals. There's also a possibility that the decline has been quick and already run its course. I don't think so but we have to consider the possibility. So the trading is never easy. I'll look things over again tonight and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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