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Thursday, September 03, 2020

What goes up must come down as they say.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 807 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The NASDAQ lost 5% in a day.  It had been moving straight up and that cannot last indefinitely as todays proved once again.  None of my SPY September put orders got filled in the past couple of days so it was another missed opportunity for me.  In hindsight, yesterday was a speculative blow off to the upside.  Now the question is how low can we go?  There is support for the S&P at 3400 to start.  If that doesn't hold there's the 50 day moving average at around 3300.  There's also solid support in my view at 3200-3250.  Only time will tell which level stops the decline.  Could today just be a one day wonder?  Anything is possible in this game but I do think that we're headed lower from here.  GE was only off 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold dropped ten bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU was down 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was light.  GDX is holding above its 50 day moving average but isn't short term oversold yet.  That said, I'll probably be putting in an order for the September calls here overnight.  The Bollinger bands for GDX are contracting which implies a big move ahead and the daily candlestick chart shows a couple of hammers in the past two sessions.  Of course things could change tomorrow but for now I'm looking at the calls.  We may also see a flight to safety on the markets huge drop.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX took off and reached above the 35 level today.  Overbought and still there on the short term indicators here.  That implies more volatility down the road.  I'm not sure just how crazy things will get but if today is an example then be prepared for anything.  I'm looking for lower stock prices going forward.  However there's also a possibility that we see a sideways market for a while as the overbought technical conditions get worn off.  There is plenty of room on the technical indicators for the major averages to move lower.  Whether or not price joins them is what we'll find out.  I think that price will but I am wrong quite often as well.  For now I'll be back to keeping an eye on the GDX calls and hope to purchase some soon.  I also cannot rule out the SPY October puts if we get a short term overbought signal again.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll get the jobs report tomorrow ahead of a holiday weekend.  Should be interesting.

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