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Tuesday, September 08, 2020

The sell off continues as the Dow fell 632 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way down. I am looking and hoping for some kind of near term bounce in order to try the SPY September puts but it appears that opportunity has passed. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The 50 day moving average at 3300 on the S&P should provide some near term support. If not, 3200 looks like the next level. It has been quite a drop in just three days so I suspect that some buying should come in soon. Tech led the way up and it's leading the way down. GE lost over 1/4 on heavy volume. Gold was up a few bucks and came off of the lows for the session. The US dollar was higher as I think we're beginning to see a flight to safety. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed around 1/4. Volume was light. I did place an open order for some GDX September calls and I'm leaving it out there. Only eight days left in the September option cycle, so this is a risky venture. We'll see if it gets filled and take it from there. GDX isn't yet completely short term oversold but we did almost hit the lower Bollinger band today. The contracting bands also imply something big brewing and my guess for now is that it will be to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up a little today despite the huge decline in the indexes. Once again this indicator is not acting the way it normally does. More overbought than oversold here but that doesn't mean that stocks can't go lower from here. They probably will as we haven't seen any buyers step up to the plate despite the recent losses. The NASDAQ has lost around 10% in a hurry. The overall nature of the market has gone from buying any decline to simply selling in a matter of days. The weekly stock index charts have plenty of room to move lower. The summation index is moving down. So we are just going to have to wait and see what transpires as we go through the month of September. I'm willing to try the gold shares here but if this trade doesn't work out I'm just as willing to move out to the October option cycle as well. GLD is short term oversold here and SLV is getting there as well. Throw in a stock market decline and we should start to see buyers in this area going forward. That's my best guess at the moment. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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