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Wednesday, September 16, 2020

An interesting session as usual when it comes to the Fed announcement days. The Dow managed a gain of 36 points on pretty good volume. The Dow was up well over 300 at one point. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways and trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was lower on the day along with the S&P. The market rallied after the Fed but then fell apart during the last hour. Volume picked up on the decline and with the NASDAQ leading the way it isn't exactly bullish. Retail sales were a bit lighter than expected. My open order for the SPY September puts was filled as the S&P 500 reached the target of 3245. It actually moved past that level and I probably could have done better on the entry. The position is showing a profit but of course that could get wiped out fast with only two days to go. For now the bearish flag formation appears to be intact on the S&P but things obviously could go either way from here. I don't think that I'll hold this position until Friday and with any luck I should dump it tomorrow with a profit. We'll have to see how things go overnight. GE exploded 2/3 to the upside on extremely heavy volume. The company reported some good news about cash flow. Gold was up about $5 on the futures as the US dollar finished a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The Fed did not affect gold this time around. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was only up slightly despite the volatility as it continues to hover around its 50 day moving average. With only two days left in the September option cycle, the risk in my SPY put position is as about as high as things get. I'll try to remind myself to stay nimble but when the markets are moving that isn't always a consideration. If the bearish flag formation on the S&P is valid we'll be heading down a lot lower. However I sincerely doubt that will happen within the next two days. Todays price action was certainly negative but anything can happen with just two days to go for the September options. The very short term trading is not one of my strong points but this trade may prove to be the exception. I'll see how things open tomorrow and take it from there. Europe was higher, with Asia generally up with the exception of China and Hong Kong. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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