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Tuesday, September 01, 2020

The climb higher continues as the Dow added 215 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market fared better than the Dow with the NASDAQ up over 150 points.  The rally is relentless as the short term overbought condition remains.  I've still got my open order for the SPY September puts out there.  But at the rate things are going this looks to be the wrong idea.  I am noticing that the puts are not losing as much value on the gains in the market now.  Not sure what that means.  Record highs for some indices on a daily basis.  GE dropped over 1/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold finished the day little changed.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume was light.  I still like the GDX calls on a trip back to oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was just a bit lower as it hangs around its 50 day moving average.  The contracting Bollinger bands here sparked a rise in the VIX but without the corresponding drop in equity prices.  Again, I don't exactly now what the implications of that are.  But I will say that when things start to simply go up in a straight line, as they are for the NASDAQ, it usually doesn't end well.  We saw this recently with the price of gold.  Now the decline may not last long but it is generally sharp and quick.  However trying to guess when this will happen has led more traders to losses than gains in my opinion.  That doesn't mean that we won't try though.  Usually when the equity prices move and the options don't move with them, it's because players are willing to pay up to be on the opposite side.  In general that side usually knows what it's doing.  The market goes where it wants though and there is nothing in the way of higher prices yet to come.  I'll reconsider leaving out the SPY put order that I have tonight.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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