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Tuesday, September 15, 2020

An early rally faded but the Dow did manage to eek out a two point gain on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is turning sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way again. I did place an open order for some SPY September puts last night but it wasn't filled. The S&P 500 did make it up almost to 3420 before backing off. I'm looking for 3425 but that was pretty close today. I canceled the order from last night and moved up a strike price with the next order that I'm leaving out there. We'll get the Fed tomorrow and that should increase the volatility. This trade is a risky proposition and if it doesn't get filled tomorrow I'll most likely head for the sidelines. Retail sales will be reported before the bell and we'll take it from there. GE was off a nickel on average volume. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as it dropped back from the highs of the session. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU and GDX were little changed as well on light volume. I'll be looking for the GDX October calls if we get back to short term oversold on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down a touch and is hanging around its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here are oversold but not completely. However if the 50 day average holds, we should see the VIX rise and stock prices fall. Hasn't happened yet and if the 50 day doesn't hold the VIX will continue to drop and the recent rally will have legs. Trying to time the short term swings is extremely difficult and especially during options expiration week. The profits will come quick but the losses will be even faster. Time decay speeds up and isn't your friend in either direction. I still think that we're in a bear flag for the S&P and if we somehow reach the top of it tomorrow, I'll probably cancel my open order and just buy some SPY puts. That's the idea for now subject to change as always. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

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