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Wednesday, September 02, 2020

It's quite a ride to the upside as the Dow gained 454 points on heavier volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  This should put the summation index sideways.  We are as overbought as it ever gets here.  But you can't fight the tape.  No sellers around but we're at extremes.  I canceled my open order for the SPY September puts but moved to a higher strike price and put another order in.  The S&P 500 is moving straight up but the put options are not losing their value in the same progression.  I can't remember when I've seen such crazy option pricing.  However the market always knows more than we do.  I also know that when things start going straight up, they usually come straight back down.  The question is when?  GE was up 1/4 on good volume.  Gold fell as the US dollar rose.  The precious metal futures were off $25.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on the session and finished well off of their lows.  Volume was light.  The gold shares benefited from the overall bullish tone for stocks today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was up today despite a huge rally in the market.  It remains short term overbought and I certainly cannot figure out what is going on here.  The VIX did correctly predict a big move coming for stocks and it was to the upside.  I'm now at a loss as to how to figure out what the recent chart action means here.  I suppose a lower VIX would go along with higher stock prices but now the VIX is rising with higher stock prices.  I'll keep an eye on it but won't use it to time anything here.  My thinking is that the Dow will be hitting new a time highs soon, following the NASDAQ and the S&P 500.  Should I wait until that happens to try the SPY September puts?  That's what I'm considering at the moment.  The only thing that I know for sure right now is that the market is out of control.  It usually occurs to the downside and I am more used to that.  How far can we go up?  Longer than you can stay solvent is the general consensus.  I also still have my eye on the GDX calls if we get back down to oversold there.  My guess is that once this burst to the upside has ended I'll get the chance at the GDX calls.  We'll see.  For now I'll reconsider this SPY put idea again tonight when I go over all the charts.  Europe and Asia were up overnight as the worldwide flow of funds continues.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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