Friday, September 25, 2020
It was a good day for the bulls as the Dow climbed 358 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ led the way higher and also broke through its down trend line. This index usually leads the way both up and down. The volume wasn't all that heavy though and it is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term techncial indicators have turned back up though. If we get some follow through upside on Monday, the market decline may be done for now. The S&P 500 hasn't broken its declining tops line yet but the indicators here have turned up as well. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. Gold was off $6 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. Still oversold on the short term indicators for GDX. I've left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it hasn't gotten filled. I'll have to reconsider this idea over the weekend. There doesn't seem to be a lot of interest in the precious metal lately and the monthly candlestick chart for gold will show a topping formation come Wednesday when September has concluded. Three weeks left in the October option cycle and if I decide to pursue this trade it won't be one to hold too long. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with a strong market. Still above the 50 day moving average and a break below there would also suggest a turn for equities. Hasn't happened yet. I stll don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment but will look things over again this weekend. The backdrop remains uncertain with the continuing pandemic virus, upcoming US election and lack of a new stimulus bill. If an agreement on a stimulus bill would occur, that should be a positive for the market. If we can get the summation index turned back up, that would be bullish too. However none of this has happened as of yet and the trend is still pointing down. Hopefully we'll know more after Monday but that could just simply be a light volume affair. We're coming up to the end of the month next week so we will have to see how that plays out as well. I'll be going over the charts this weekend and we'll see what I can find. Asia was higher and Europe lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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