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Wednesday, September 23, 2020

The down trend lines remain in effect as the Dow lost 525 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down. The NASDAQ led the way lower and if we get some follow through tomorrow it should hit a new low for the move. The S&P 500 is almost at 3200 and it will probably get there tomorrow as well. The McClellan oscillator will be very negative after today too. We'll need to see it stabalize or turn around here soon or it could get very ugly. I do not expect this decline to turn into a full on rout but the possibility is out there. We are oversold and staying that way for the major stock indices. Buyers are on the sidelines for now after yesterdyas appearance. GE was off over 1/8 on good volume. Gold got pounded lower as the futures dropped forty bucks. The support at $1900 failed. The US dollar continued higher today. The XAU lost 9 3/4, while GDX fell 2 3/8. Volume was heavy to the downside. I left my open order for the GDX October calls out there but it wasn't filled. Getting close though and I would have expected it to be filled by now. Support for GDX has been broken as well so why even attempt this trade? It looks like the trying to catch a falling knife syndrome. We've also broken down on the technical indicators where previous declines had stopped. I think if this order does get filled it will be an opportunity for some profits on the first bounce back from the decline of this week. Or gold and the gold shares could just continue to fall since the next support for the precious metal is at $1800. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. Mentally I'm still feeling tired as I haven't felt well all week. The VIX was higher today as it bounced off of its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here still have plenty of room to run before reaching overbought. That says that the decline could be much longer than I am currently thinking. That would certainly spell trouble for any call side trades. So there is nothing wrong with calling off whatever I'm doing now and heading to the sidelines either. I'll consider this tonight as well. Asia was mixed with Europe higher in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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