Thursday, April 03, 2025
The market threw a tariff tantrum today as stocks suffered huge losses. The Dow fell 1679 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. This will turn the summation index back down and on its way to the zero line. The tariffs that perhaps were going to give us some clarity instead have created even more uncertainty. The was a giant gap down at the open and stocks never came back. The NASDAQ fell over 1000 points or 6% for the session. It led the way lower. The S&P 500 lost roughly 275 points. The previous near term lows were taken out. The short term indicators here are moving back lower with room to go. Not sure how low we'll go here on the S&P. There is some support at 5200 and the longer term up trend line that began at the bottom in 2022 comes in at 5000. Either target is in play as is looks like we'll be going through the zero line on the summation index. The down trend line on the S&P daily chart is still in charge. Gold dropped $37 on the futures but did come back from the worst levels on the day. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 points, while GDX ended the day flat. Volume was good. They both ended up from their lows as well. I did place an order overnight for some GDX April calls but canceled it before the bell when GDX was about to open 4 1/2% lower. I did try again for some calls later in the day but my order wasn't filled. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to trend lower. However money is still finding a home in gold and I'd like to try the calls here if GDX can get back to its up trend line that began in January. One caveat is that GDX is both short and medium term overbought. However it can stay that way during rallies and we are in one now for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and closed at the 30 level. The short term indicators are now moving up and getting to overbought territory. The daily candlestick chart that I thought was going to go lower has completely turned around. You can expect more volatility in the days to come and I'm not sure how high the VIX will go. Tomorrow we've got the employment report and then a speech by the Fed chairman. So it should be a wild end to the trading week. Still two weeks to go in the April option cycle. However option premiums are high and the environment is even more uncertain than usual. There will be opportunities though. Europe and Asia sank overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 02, 2025
A back and forth session ahead of the after the bell tariffs news but the Dow managed a gain of 235 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back up. The NASDAQ led the way again today and that remains a positive. The short term indicators on the S&P 500 are now trending higher. The S&P remains below its 200 day moving average and the short term down trend line. However I am still more inclined to believe that we'll be heading higher in the near term. I could be wrong. Once we get past the tariff event there's still the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 5/8 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. GDX has trended sideways for a week. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go higher though GDX remains short term overbought. I'm still on the side of waiting until it returns to the short term up trend line at 43 before trying the calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. The short term indicators here are now at mid-range. So it appears the VIX is poised now to move either way. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to move lower. We'll see how the markets react to the tariffs details and take it from there. Asia was generally higher and Europe down overnight. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Tuesday, April 01, 2025
Waiting on the tariffs as the Dow dropped 11 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that is a plus. I'm getting the feeling that we have at least put in a short term low here and we'll challenge the short term down trend line on the S&P soon. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn up. It looks like weakness today should have been bought but we'll have to see what tomorrow brings. But it is possible that for now the market is sold out. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar ended flat as well, while interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX remain overbought. We'll see how gold reacts to what comes out of the tariff news tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today. Some of the short term indicators here are starting to move sideways. I'm still thining that the VIX will move lower and stocks higher in the near term. One thing that the market does not like is uncertainty. Getting the tariff news out of the way will take care of some of that. So I would not be surprised if we see some buying tomorrow regardless of what the tariffs are. We'll see. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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