To the downside but it wasn't a rout as the Dow fell 134 points on heavy end of the month volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. There was a gap lower at the open and then we spent the day moving sideways. We did get a signal from the McClellan oscillator yesterday for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if it shows up tomorrow. Waiting on the debt limit approval but that is probably already in the market. The Friday jobs report is the next potential market mover. Beginning of a new month tomorrow. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. Not sure exactly what's next here so no SPY trades for now. The NASDAQ remains short term overbought. Gold was up $5 on the futures but came off of the highs for the day. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates had a drop. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX was up about 3/4. Volume was good to the upside for a change. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn back up but remain oversold. My GDX June calls are still losers. I'm not sure if GDX is going to continue higher from here or just move sideways. There's still time for this trade to perhaps work out for a small gain but we'd have to see some upside follow through the rest of this week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly which fits with todays price action. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so things could go either way now with this indicator. Not sure what to expect. Europe and Asia were down overnight. We'll be keeping an eye on the headlines tonight to see if the debt package keeps moving along.

Pretty much a listless session on the return from the holiday weekend. The Dow fell 50 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The debt limit deal is done and now needs to be voted on. Hopefully that will be done by the end of the week and we can move on from that distraction. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way here and that's a plus. However it has remained short term overbought for quite some time and it is getting pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. But that doesn't mean it can't keep going up. It will have to take a rest at some point though. The S&P 500 is not completely short term overbought but seems to be having trouble getting through the 4200 level. Tomorrow is another day. Gold was up over $30 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 1 1/8 and GDX lost over 1/8. Volume was average. A stellar day for gold and the gold shares lose value? That is not a good sign for the bulls as interest in owning the gold shaeres is lacking. My GDX June calls are solid losers and this trade will need to be completed sooner rather than later. Gold is holding on to its up trend line that has been in effect since November. GDX is also holding its longer term up trend line but todays price action was disappointing. If the gold shares can't get going on a thirty dollar rally in gold, when can they? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with the overall market. Mid-range for the short term technicals here so it could go either way. Still well below the 20 level and that implies higher stock prices moving forward. End of the month tomorrow and we'll see what that brings. We did purchase the natural gas ETF BOIL again today for the next trade there. We'll hold until it gets short term overbought. Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Heading higher now as the Dow gained 328 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower which is puzzling considering the markets have been moving up. Not sure what that means but if the summation index can start heading back up we could see quite a rally. The zero line is still in view. The NASDAQ continues to be the leader and that's a plus. Another plus for the bulls was the fact that the inflation data came out a bit hot today and the market ignored it. Perhaps my idea of the market selling off on the debt limit deal is wrong. We'll know soon enough. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. It is back above the 4200 level. Maybe stocks are just going to run up into the June option expiration but we'll have to wait and see. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were mixed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. My GDX June calls are still losers and unless the gold shares get going to the upside next week I'm going to have to exit this trade with a loss. Haven't seen the bounce here that was expected given the technical data. A long weekend on tap to be holding onto this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was down today and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here have turned back down. If the VIX continues lower, stocks should continue higher next week. Just waiting on Washington for now as the supposed June 1st deadline looms. Maybe they'll be an announcement over the holiday weekend. We'll go over the charts and try and come up with a game plan for next week. Europe closed higher and Asia as well with the exception of Hong Kong. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing higher for the overall market but the Dow fell 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. Earnings from NVDA sparked a huge rally in tech stocks that drove both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The short term indicators for the S&P are turning back up. Not sure where we are going from here as the breadth hasn't been keeping up with the gains. However I would expect some kind of relief rally when the debt limit agreement comes to pass. Whether or not we trust that rally is another question. Gold fell $23 on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates continue to climb. The XAU lost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was about average. I did purchase some of the GDX June calls today. They are showing a small loss. Short term oversold on the gold shares and staying that way which could be dangerous for this trade. GDX is almost at 30 and close enough for me to put this trade on. We should at the least see some kind of boounce here for GDX. However if we break through the 30 level and stay there, this index is in more trouble than I thought. So we'll keep an eye on things and see where we go from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the overall market. Still below 20 but it is above its 50 day moving average. I'm still not sure where it's going from here. A long weekend coming up so some of the players could be missing tomorrow. We've got inflation data coming out and that could be an early market mover. Washington dealings remain on the table for now as well. So we'll see how we close out the week. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Sellers remained in control today as the Dow fell 255 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower and on the way to the zero line. We all know what will happen if we go through there as the market will fall apart. I'm hoping that won't happen but if it does opportunities will be created. In the meantime the short term up trend line for the S&P 500 was violated today. The short term indicators here are moving down and still have a ways to go to get oversold. So things don't look promising for the bulls at the moment. However as soon as the debt limit agreement is announced, we should see a relief rally take place. Gold was down $14 on the futures today. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped 1/4. Volume was average. Getting closer to the target of 30 for GDX. I again adjusted down my open order for the GDX June calls. Short term oversold and staying that way for GDX. Perhaps attempting the gold share calls is the wrong idea here but we are getting buy signals from some of the indicators. I also placed an order for the GDX July calls in case I'm too early with purchasing the calls for June. If GDX breaks the up trend line at 30 on the weekly chart then any call trades will be canceled as the decline for the gold shares will be much larger than anticipated. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped above 20 today and closed at that level. It's moving to short term overbought rather quickly. If the VIX gets above 20 and stays there it will be trouble for the market. Hasn't happened yet but we'll keep an eye on it. We'll see how things progress in tonights session and take it from there. Orders may have to be adjusted overnight. Europe and Asia continued down last night. It looks like after hours earnings from NVDA are giving the futures a lift. We'll see how it goes from there.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 231 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways which is creating a ledge. Usually this indicates that things will fall off the ledge. We'll see if that's the case this time around. The NASDAQ was the leader heading down and that is not a plus. The short term indicators have now turned down for the S&P 500. Is it possible that the debt limit deal won't get done and the markets will collapse? I doubt it. Washington will eventually come up with something to avoid that scenario. Perhaps the extended overbought conditons of the market are finally getting adjusted. Whatever the situation, one day doesn't make a trend. The market has the rest of the week to sort things out. Gold finished around unchanged after being lower early on. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains short term oversold. I adjusted my order lower for the GDX June calls. I'm now thinking that GDX may hang around for a while before any meaningful move higher. I could be wrong. Up trend lines for GDX and gold itself remain in place for now. We will look to own some gold share calls if GDX gets back to that line at around 30. If it doesn't hold we'll take the loss and move on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and the short term indicators have moved up from being oversold. Unsure as to whether this is a one day wonder or the beginning of a real move higher in the VIX. Still below both the 50 day moving average and the important 20 level. We'll keep an eye on it. The market is being held hostage to the debt limit debate and deadline. This too shall pass but for now we'll have to wait on Washington. Europe and Asia were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

It feels like we're running in place as the Dow fell 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving sideways. It was a mixed bag again with the NASDAQ moving higher and the S&P 500 practically unchanged. Being held hostage by the debt limit drama for now. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The NASDAQ has been that way for a couple of weeks. Can't say that things will stay that way forever but that's where we are at for now. Just rolled into the June option cycle so the premiums for SPY are high. I still think that a resolution on the debt limit could be a sell the news event once the initial euphoria wears off. We'll see. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume. My open order for the June GDX calls remains in place. GDX is still short term oversold on the technical indicators. 30 is the ideal target for this move lower but we'll have to see if that happens. Also looking at the July GDX calls in case this decline has a longer shelf life. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits with the Dow but not the overall market. Still short term oversold here. Also put in another limit order to try BOIL again in the natural gas space. I'll let you know when and if it gets filled. Otherwise we'll have to keep up with the Washington stalemate headlines tonight. The odds favor some kind of deal and then the politicians can thankfully head away from the market spotlight. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the trading week overseas. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

We opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow fell 109 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is starting to track sideways. Perhaps it's just a pause at the 4200 level before moving higher. Or maybe just more angst about the debt limit drama. Short term overbought on some of the S&P 500 indicators. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see where things go from here as we roll into the June option cycle. Option premiums will be pricey and there will be a holiday weekend at the end of next week. So unless we get a solid signal for trading the SPY we'll wait on the sidelines. Gold bounced twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower but interest rates continued their climb. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. I've left the order for the GDX June calls out there for now. GDX remains short term oversold at the moment. May adjust the order going forward but if GDX gets to 30 we will be buying some calls then. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that goes along with lower stock prices. Still short term oversold here but the VIX can stay that way during rallies. Comfortably below the 20 level here which implies higher prices in the future. Not much economic data out next week until Fridays inflation numbers. Might have to be patient for now. We'll look over the charts this weekend and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Continuing higher as the Dow added 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around again. It should be successful this time around. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way despite being short term overbought for an extended period. The S&P 500 finally made it to 4200 and closed just below there today. The short term indicators are pointing up and are not completely overbought yet. So we will expect higher prices going forward. The market knows more than we do and it appears to be telling us that the debt limit deal will get done. That could be a sell the news event since the markets are already moving higher. 4300 is the next target for the S&P. Gold was off $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates which has been the theme lately. The XAU lost about 3 points, while GDX dropped another 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. Short term oversold for GDX and I did place an order for the GDX June calls that I'm leaving out there. Gold itself is just about at its longer term up trend line and a bounce on it should be expected although it is possible for it to just continue through. The longer term up trend line for GDX comes in at 30 but if gold bounces I'd expect the gold shares to go along in the near term too. Again however there's the chance that the precious metals complex just keeps dropping. We'll now soon enough. I'd also like to add that on the daily GDX chart there is now a double top with a masuring objective of 30 to the downside. Mentally I'm feeling as though I missed another decent SPY trade by not getting the calls this week. We were leaning that way but did not want to take the early risk. Once again in retrospect we should have. The VIX was lower today which fits with the rally. Short term oversold here with just a little more room left. The VIX implies that the rally has legs and I'd have to agree. We sold our leveraged ETF BOIL today as natural gas moved up sharply today. The gain on this trade was 18%. More money was involved to take this position so we will be quick to exit once we have a solid profit. Still learning how this product is traded but we will buy it once again if and when it gets back down to where we purchased it this time around. Asia and Europe were higher as money is moving back into stocks around the globe. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Buyers showed up today as the Dow gained 408 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower. It is also on its way towards the zero line which would imply the market falling apart. My guess is that it will turn around before that occurs but we'll see. We were hoping for weakness into Thursday to try the SPY May calls but the market did not cooperate. Might still try the calls there if the market drops tomorrow but the odds of the trade working have now gone down. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned up and it appears that was have broken out of the sideways congestion to the upside. Perhaps we can make it to 4200 by the close on Friday. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates once again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Short term oversold now for GDX but we are not in a rush to try the calls again here yet. The fact that gold is declining when is was supposed to be seen as a hedge for the debt limit problem tells us that the problem will be solved. Mentally just a bit frustrated as the market has moved up before we wanted it to. Did not take the risk of being too early on the idea and wanted to wait until the odds were at their peak. We'll move along from here. The VIX was lower today and there's still a little more room for the short term indicators to move down. Should I still try the SPY May calls tomorrow if there's weakness? Something to ponder overnight. Asia was generally down and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Heading down today as the Dow fell 336 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The market was hanging around with minor losses before dropping in the final half hour. The Dow was the leader heading lower, while the NASDAQ was barely lower. The big move in the Dow confirms the signal from the McClellan oscillator but it certainly wasn't a broad decline. The S&P 500 remains mired in a sideways trend with the indicators still stuck in mid-range territory. We are hoping to see continued weakness into Thursday so we can try the SPY May calls for a very short term trade. We'll see. Gold fell almost $30 on the futures and closed below the $2000 level. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8. Volume was average. GDX is short term oversold and almost at its 50 day moving average. Do we attempt the GDX June calls here or wait for lower prices? There is an up trend line on the weekly chart that comes in at 30 and the indicators on this chart have plenty of room to work their way lower. So perhaps some patience is necessary here for now. Waiting for a positive divergence would not be a bad idea either. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here have now turned up. I still don't have a good idea of what to expect from the VIX. The Dow continues to drop and is now short term oversold. The NASDAQ continues to hold up and is short term overbought. The S&P 500 indicators are neither overbought or oversold. It is a very confusing and complicated situation at the moment. It will resolve itself eventually. Three days to go in the May option cycle and we'll have to hope that we trend lower here to try the SPY calls before Friday. Risky indeed to attempt it but if it sets up I feel confident that it will work. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The market continues to simply hang around as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower but might be in the process of trying to turn around with todays positive breadth. The NASDAQ continues to outperform. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a bit move within the next 2 trading days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. The S&P 500 continues to move sideways with the short term indicators at mid-range. We are considering the SPY May calls this week if we get a set up. That means if the market is weak going into Thursday, we'll try the SPY calls with one day or so left. That's the theory for now. Might already be too late if the market rallies from here. Gold was flat on the session. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained about 1/3. Volume remains light here. GDX is short term oversold on some of its indicators. Might try the GDX June calls but not right now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished flat and the daily candlestick chart still looks like it wants to go lower to me. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. Not really getting any clues about what's about to happen here next. Not a lot of economic data due this week but we will get retail sales tomorrow. Ongoing debt limit debate as well. We'll keep an eye on things but we might just be stuck on the sidelines for now. Asia was up and Europe flat to start the week. We'll see how things go on Tuesday.

Some buying at the open but then sellers appeared for much of the session until a recovery in the final hour. The Dow dropped 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues down. The NASDAQ led the way lower for a change but all the major stock indicies finished well off of their lows on the day. The S&P 500 remains in a sideways trend with the short term technical indicators stuck at mid-range. I am considering getting the SPY May calls on weakness Monday but today might have been the day to purchase as we have already moved up quite a lot from todays low. We'll consider this idea over the weekend. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional moves up on light volume. Not completely oversold for GDX again but it is in the vicinity of its recent lows. I dumped the GDX May calls that I had for a 75% loss. The entry wasn't as good as it could have been and the exit was horrible. Another mismanaged trade that should have turned a profit. What I need to guard against here is attempting another trade just to try and get even with this one. Thankfully the weekend is here and I'll have time to contemplate the next move. I am looking at the June GDX calls but the strength in the US dollar here might be a concern for gold. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing the best I can despite the losing trade. As I'll always said the mental capital involved with the trades, win or lose, is always the most important concept to consider. The VIX again finished little changed and is not yet completely oversold. It looks like the VIX could go either way although the daily candlestick chart here appears to point to a lower VIX. But I haven't figured out this indicator with any consistency lately. Plenty of charts to look at this weekend as we try and come up with a decent trade for options expiration week. Hopefully I'll be better at the execution than the latest debacle. Trying to move forward from here. Asia was generally lower and Europe up to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We're still getting mixed signals as the Dow fell 221 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. We've had the summation index moving down but the stock market going sideways and that might be a good thing for the bulls. The producer prices came in tame but we had an early sell off. The NASDAQ was up yet again despite overall market weakness. Something has to give here sooner or later. I almost purchased some SPY May calls today because I do think we will resolve this indecision to the upside. Whether or not it's before option expiration is another question. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still mid-range. Gold fell $17 on the futures as silver got crushed today and lost over $1. The US dollar was higher and interest rates fell slightly. The XAU lost 5 1/2, while GDX tanked 1 1/2. Volume was good to the downside. My GDX May calls are now solid losers and all but dead. The only reason that I held on to them is that GDX is so blown out to the downside on some indicators that there should be some kind of bounce tomorrow to exit the trade. This one was poorly managed once again as a winner turned into a loser. Lack of discipline once again reared its ugly head. Greed may have been a slight factor. There was a glaring potential negative RSI divergence on the GDX daily chart that I chose to ignore. It manifested itself today with a huge loss in the index. I'm not sure why silver had such a huge decline but it looks like the industrial metals are coming down. Copper is dropping and could be a precursor to a slowing economy. Silver heading down would fit into that scenario. No matter. We'll take the loss on this GDX call trade tomorrow and try to move on. Mentally I'm frustrated of course as I did not have the right frame of mind to do what had to be done in the GDX call trade. Not a lot of money involved but the mental loss is always harder to deal with. But you've got to find a way to put it behind you and go forward. The VIX was flat on the session and the technical conditon there remains the same. Not sure where it is headed next. Asia and Europe were generally lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a yoyo market today as we gapped up at the open, sold off hard and then made it all the way back and then some for most of the indices. The Dow posted a loss of 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower. Inflation data came in where expected which caused relief at the open. But sellers took over only and pounded things into a loss until halfway through the session when buyers appeared. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted decent gains for the day. The short term indicators for the S&P are still stuck in the middle but they have turned up. I'm not sure what to expect with tomorrows producer prices. Let's just say today looked like we were about to fall off a cliff and the market turned around. We'll take that as a plus. But tomorrow's another day. Gold was off around five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was light here but better than it has been lately. The gold shares did come up off of their worst levels on the day. However the short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. Somehow the GDX May calls that I still own are still slightly in the black. I've clearly overstayed my welcome in this trade and will have to seriously consider dumping it before the weekend. Still seven days to go yet in the May option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are leaning down. The low VIX is another reason why we are still thinking that the S&P will reach 4200 sometime soon. It remains solidly below the all important level of 20 which normally indicates higher stock prices to come. Again, things could change tomorrow but if the inflation data comes in benign stocks could rally. Our own work says that the PPI might come in a little hot so we'll see. Europe and Asia had losses last night. On to Thursdays infation data.

Another day of going nowhere as the Dow fell 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is heading down. We had a gap lower at the open and then went sideways for the rest of the session. Waiting on inflation data tomorrow and Thursday. Not sure what that will bring. The NASDAQ was the leader heading lower but the losses were small. The technical condition for the S&P 500 hasn't changed. Mid-range on the short term indicators and waiting to see which way they go. Not getting a good signal either way so we're on the sidelines with respect to the SPY for now. 8 days to go in the May option cycle. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar rose and interest rates ticked up slightly. Once again the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. It was also the second day in a row that gold had a rise and the gold shares failed to respond. That's a negative. Not sure why I'm still holding on to the GDX May call trade but hope springs eternal. On the hourly chart that we look at here the indicators are back at 50% so things can go either way for the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today at it too is waiting on tomorrows data. Will volatility be making a comeback is the question. My guess would be not right now as the VIX has been able to remain below the 20 level for over a month. But we'll let the market decide what's next and take things from there. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Just hanging around would be the best way to describe todays price action as the Dow fell 55 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still tracking lower. Waiting on the inflation data would sum things up. Mixed as well since the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P finished flat. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are around mid-range now. So either way from here is a possibility. I guess I'll still look for the S&P to get to 4200 this week as we've been waiting on that for a few weeks. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates rose. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are slightly overbought and starting to roll over. This does not look good for our GDX May calls. They are still sporting a profit but not nearly as much as last week. Time premium is being sucked out and the light volume is no help. Might have to think about dumping them before they turn into a loss. Still nine days to go though and the reaction to the inflation data will most likely determine the outcome of this trade. Gold finished off of the highs of the session and that's a negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. Not sure where the VIX is headed next. Not close to short term overbought or oversold here. Indecision time in the market. A meeting in Washington on the debt limit could influence markets one way or the other. But the inflation data will probably be the main driver for this week. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan while Europe was quiet and mixed. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Buyers took over today as the Dow soared higher by 546 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. The summation index is still heading lower. Employment was a bit better than expected and the earnings from Apple were viewed as positive. It appears that yesterdays heavy volume combined with the selling was an exaustion point to the downside for now. We were looking for a bounce at the beginning of next week but it came early. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. The weekly candlestick chart there looks constructive although it is overbought. We'll get inflation data out next week and that should be the next mover for markets. Gold got crushed as the futures dropped $30. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. The fact that the gold shares held up rather well despite the loss in gold itself is encouraging. However the short term indicators for GDX are starting to roll over. The weekly candlestick chart for gold does not look good for the bulls. My GDX May calls are still in the black but we'll need to think hard over the weekend about what to do here. Never anything easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped big as todays stellar gains imply. The short term indicators here have rolled over and it looks like higher stock prices in the near future according to the VIX. So we'll have to ask again, are we finally on our way to 4200 on the S&P? The reaction to next weeks inflation data will probably answer that. Plenty of work to do going over the charts this weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 286 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues down. The Dow has been leading the way lower. The S&P 500 is almost to its 50 day moving average at 4040. We'll have to see what happens if and when it gets there. The fact that the NASDAQ hasn't been leading the way down is a plus in my mind and one of the reasons that I don't think that the decline will be something big. I could be wrong. Getting short term oversold on the S&P but not completely there yet. If the S&P is down tomorrow we'll look for a bounce at the beginning of next week. Not sure if it will be worth trying the SPY May calls there though. Employment data tomorrow should be a mover. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures but came off of the best levels of the day. The US dollar was slightly higher as it finished well off of the lows for the session. Interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good to the upside. My GDX May calls are showing a gain but finished well off of the best levels for the day. Still holding this trade for now as GDX is stalling at 36, the area of near term resistance. If it can get through there it will have room to run. Gold itself is close to setting a new all time high. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up and barely closed above 20 and its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are not yet completely overbought. Perhaps we should listen to both the lower summation index and the rising VIX. They imply more selling going forward and more than I am anticipating. So we'll see. The market always knows more than we do. Perhaps there's more bank failures on the way. Just a guess there. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market took a little while to figure out which way it wanted to go after the Fed but finally decided on lower as the Dow lost 270 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. Got the expected 1/4 point rise in rates which led to an hour of bouncing around before selling off. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned south and perhaps we're heading to the 50 day moving average at around 4040. But I do not think this is the start of an extended decline as the NASDAQ wasn't the leader once again. But who knows? We'll know more as the rest of the week unfolds. Next up is Fridays jobs report. Gold rose almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates again. The gold shares did not participate in the upside with gold as both the XAU and GDX had just slight fractional gains on average volume. Perhaps that was because of the lower overall stock market. Well we hope that's the case otherwise it's a negative for the gold shares going forward. My GDX May calls are still in the black. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are now mid-range so where thay go next will tell us a lot. My guess is that they'll roll over again and the market will turn back up but I'm not willing to trade on that. There's still plenty of time in the May option cycle for the SPY. Europe was higher and Asia generally lower although some markets remain closed there. Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the employment report. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Sellers took over today in what seemed to be a delayed reaction to yesterdays First Republic bank failure. The Dow lost 367 points on better volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 negative. This turns the summation index back down. There was some weaker economic data out this morning as well. But we'll stick to the technicals as the S&P 500 did reach short term overbought on some of the indicators yesterday. Todays decline does seem to bode well for put buyers going forward but it isn't set in stone just yet. We finished well off of the lows for the session and the NASDAQ wasn't a strong leader going lower. A lot will depend on the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. Not sure how that will go. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 does now have a bearish look though. Gold took off to the upside on fear as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX rose 1 1/4. Volume expanded to the upside which is bullish if it continues tomorrow. The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up. The GDX May calls that I have are now showing a profit. Not sure how long we'll hold on to this one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up but did fall back after a spike to almost 20 this morning. I don't know if that means that the decline has already reached its limit. We'll know more after tomorrow I suppose. The short term indicators have turned back up here. It was the most volatile session in a while but I'm not sure if it means a return to more of the same. However even after the Fed we've still got the jobs report on Friday to deal with. Interesting times. Asia was up but China remains closed. Europe finished lower. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

It's a waiting game to begin the new month as the Dow fell 46 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Another bank failure but the market seemed to take it in stride as it wasn't unexpected. A somewhat listless trading session as we await the Fed on Wednesday. Another rate hike is in the cards but the speech afterwards should provide some market movement. Until then we'll just be hanging around. Short term overbought now for the S&P 500 and the daily candlestick chart has what looks like an evening star here. That could be ominous going forward unless we can continue higher. In fact a lot of the daily candlestick charts for the major averages have the same potential evening star on them. So getting some upside from here is essential for the bulls. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Light volume equals no interest. It was another session where the gold shares opened higher and closed lower. Still short term oversold here on some of the indicators but we're not seeing a bounce. My GDX May calls are losers and this trade is not looking like it will pan out. The Bollinger bands are contracting on the daily GDX chart which implies that a big move is coming. The way it looks today is that the move will be lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up bit today and that fits the lower prices. Short term oversold here and there's the potential to work off that conditon and the market to move lower near term. That would fit with the evening star candlestick picture. But we all know that the market moves where it wants when it wants. The VIX can stay oversold for extended periods of time as well. There's no doubt that the market will move off of the Fed though and we're just waiting on that. Which way is the question. Most foreign markets were closed for May day. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.