We got a slight bounce today as the Dow rose 72 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  I am looking for more upside as today was not enough to cheapen the SPY February puts for my taste.  But the market may not cooperate.  The Fed came and went and next up is the Friday jobs report.  What I'd like to see is a solid upside session in order to get short.  The ideal scenario would be to hit a nominal new high with a lower RSI reading but that would take a few days and the market could just continue to fall apart here.  So I'll have to wait and see.  It isn't the best case scenario but I am still convinced that this rally has run its course.  GE was up almost 1/4 on still heavy volume.  The more the $16 level is tested, the more chance it has to hold.  Gold gained almost $10 as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was better than yesterday.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped slightly today and is coming off of short term overbought levels.  The small stocks are holding up rather well here and no important uptrend lines have been broken to the downside yet.  In fact the resilience of the small caps here may mean that the decline that I'm looking for may not come to pass.  The smaller stocks are usually the leaders of moves both up and down.  The McClellan oscillator did hit a pretty oversold level yesterday, so some near term upside is expected.  How far and how strong that upside is will tell us a lot about where we are going.  I'm still favoring the SPY February puts during this option cycle but as always the timing is key.  At this point I may have to wait until next week.  However the risk will increase with each passing day.  I'll be watching and waiting for now.  Europe and Asia were both mixed last night.  It's the beginning of the month tomorrow but I would expect a holding pattern as we wait for Fridays employment report.  Apple reports after the bell tomorrow and that could affect Fridays action as well.  But let's see what happens on Thursday first. 

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 362 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were again over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Two days don't make a trend but I can tell you that the trend is now down.  The rally is over.  Parabolic moves higher never end pretty and we are now seeing the picture.  Any rallies can be shorted in my opinion.  We had a gap lower today and if we're lucky perhaps that gap will be filled and give us an opportunity to buy some SPY February puts.  But we may just keep going straight down here and if that's the case it will be an opportunity missed.  I also think that this is probably the end of the bull market that began in 2009.  We've reached the measuring objectives of the 5 wave move up from there.  Perhaps we'll make a nominal new all time high but I would not be surprised if this is it for the longer term bull market.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Just below $16 here.  It would be a good spot to get some calls if you thought GE will hold here.  I'm going to concentrate on the SPY here instead.  Gold was off a little on the futures and the US dollar dropped slightly as well.  The XAU lost 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was lighter.  No flight to safety here today.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to participate in the profits on this decline.  I can't really fault myself too much though as there was no signal to get short.  Just a parabolic move higher that continued to spin out of control to the upside.  However now that we know what is going on, I'll be trying the SPY February puts on any move higher.  I do think that kind of trade will work going forward.  The only problem here is that we simply may continue lower without any bounce up.  If that is the case I will have to look to play the bounce if we get short term oversold.  The VIX has spiked into overbought territory on some of the short term indicators so perhaps we'll see some relief there soon.  There is plenty of time left in the February option cycle to make something work.  But the increase in volatility will make things interesting and more difficult to say the least.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow and then the jobs numbers on Friday.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  Also throw in the state of the union speech tonight.  So there's plenty for the market to digest the rest of this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower as the world is now selling off stock assets together instead of buying.  We'll see how long this keeps going on.  Keep an eye on things overnight along with the futures market reaction to the state of the union address. 

Some downside to start the week for a change as the Dow lost 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  Perhaps this is the beginning of a much needed decline but that still remains to be seen.  I will be looking at hopefully a lighter volume push higher from here, in order to purchase the SPY February puts.  Or it may already be too late.  These parabolic moves higher never end well and sometimes it is simply a straight line back down.  There's also the possibility that this is just another blip on the radar as we continue higher to new all time highs again.  But the breadth today tells me that is probably not the case.  I'll be looking to get the SPY puts sometime this week.  GE bucked the trend and rose 15 cents on the usual heavy volume.  Still holding the $16 level here.  Gold fell over $10 today as the US dollar edged higher.  US interest rates are on the rise and that is normally a headwind for gold.  The XAU was off over 2 3/4, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  One day doesn't make a trend but it certainly feels different to me today on this decline.  We did have a good rise on the VIX today and it is getting to the overbought range on some of the technical indicators.  That would not equate to more selling in the immediate future in my view but anything can happen in this game.  We've got the end of the month coming up on Wednesday along with the Fed.  The thinking is that the Fed will be a non event since a new chairman is about to take over in February.  But you never know.  Also the employment report is due out on Friday.  So there are plenty of potential market moving events to deal with this week.  It could be that the time to act is now for the SPY February puts.  However I will at least try and wait for some type of negative divergence signal.  If we do simply go straight down from here, it will be too late for me anyway.  So needless to say, it is time to really pay attention to what the market does here.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll keep an eye on the trading action overnight.

The parabolic run higher continues as the Dow poured on another 223 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GDP was a little less than expected but it didn't matter.  The only thing that matters is that the market is going higher.  Earnings continue to come in and projections are for more profits as the new corporate tax rate goes into effect.  It doesn't look like anything can bring this market down but I will continue to warn you.  When it gets going like this the end will not be pretty.  But who can tell when the end will be?  Still overbought on all time frames for the major averages any way you look at it.  The technical indicators haven't been working for weeks.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts but still have no idea on when to purchase them.  Perhaps next week.  GE was off a few cents on still pretty good volume.  $16 has held for now.  There is a possible short term double bottom here on the daily chart with a potential positive RSI divergence.  I'm not sure if I'd try the February calls here though.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures which reflected what happened yesterday on the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  No trades in mind here but to me it looks like the gold shares a re due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a January so far for stocks and it doesn't look like anything can derail this runaway freight train.  We are so overextended by any stretch of the imagination that I am at a loss as what to do.  I mean I know that getting the SPY puts at some stage will work and they will probably work pretty good.  However when the technicals are so far out of whack that they remain overbought or oversold for weeks on end, you know you're in a situation that doesn't occur very often.  It reminds me of the dot com run up at the turn of the century when companies were bid up with no products or earnings.  We've got products and earnings this time around but the price action is similar.  We all know what happened back then though and I expect a repeat of history is coming at some point.  I suppose all you can do here is watch and wait.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another mixed bag today as the Dow climbed 140 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The NASDAQ showed a small loss on the session and the TRAN has rolled over.  I do not know if this is a precursor for overall lower prices but I am keeping an eye on it.  The same extreme overbought conditions persist for the major stock averages.  It is impossible to say how long this can go on.  It's a parabolic run up in my mind and I want to be on board when it turns around.  GE dropped another 1/4 and the volume remains very high.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar steadied.  The XAU shed 2 1/8, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was heavy.  This looks like a turnaround for the gold shares so perhaps we will begin to see some dollar strength going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher today even though we gained 140 points.  I'm not exactly sure what's going on there.  I'm still looking at the SPY February puts but will probably let tomorrow pass and wait to see what happens in the beginning of next week.  There still isn't a clear signal that a decline is about to occur.  We are in a momentum move higher and it isn't a good idea to try and guess the top.  All recent declines have been short lived and I'm looking for a more sustained event.  The best that I can do here is monitor the situation and be prepared to act.  But for now the sidelines are the place for me to be.  This will eventually change as conditions warrant if I'm adept enough to recognize the situation.  That remains to be seen.  Europe and Asia were generally lower last night.  We'll see how the week finishes trading tomorrow. 

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 41 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ was much lower and the S&P 500 opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal to the downside.  I'm not sure if that means this is the beginning of something lower or just another blip on the upside radar.  Time will tell on that.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The small stocks were lower today and that could mean that things are going to change but one day doesn't make a trend.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts.  Regardless, we remain very overbought and are still basically moving higher in a parabolic blow off in my mind.  I don't know when it will end.  GE was right back down today and lost about 1/2 on extremely heavy volume and was once again the most actively traded issue on the big board.  We'll see if $16 holds.  Gold climbed $20 on the futures as the US dollar had a drop once again.  The XAU gained 2 1/8 and GDX added 1/2.  Volume increased on the rise again.  I still don't know why the US dollar is dropping with US interest rates rising.  I do know that inverse relationship won't last forever.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is a potential short term negative divergence on the RSI for the RUT.  It is potential because we could go higher from here and that would negate the signal.  So it is something to keep an eye on in the near term.  Otherwise the conditions remain the same.  Well above all moving average lines and the technical indicators are all over extended.  The TRAN showed weakness today on heavy volume.  The short term indicators have started to roll over here.  But again, upside tomorrow would turn things back up.  However this index is starting to move sideways and could be an early warning of a change in trend.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see how things go the rest of this week.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.  

The Dow had a pause in the party today as it fell 3 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was much stronger that the Dow, with the NASDAQ leading the way.  As long as the small stocks continue to show good relative strength, I'll be looking for higher prices even though we are way overbought.  You cannot get in the way of this momentum right now.  Hopefully there will be an opportunity for the SPY February puts in this option cycle.  GE came to life as it rose 3/4 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps $16 is the floor here because there was no news that I could see to raise the stock that much.  I don't have any trades in mind for GE at the moment.  Gold added $9 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  Rates have increased in the near term yet the dollar cannot find any strength.  This is not the usual relationship.  The XAU gained 1 5/8, while GDX rose 3/8.  Volume picked up on the rise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  January continues to see a parabolic rise in my mind as we set new highs on many of the major stocks indices today.  We are now even further away from the moving average lines.  I keep repeating myself but this will not end well when the time comes.  I will keep an eye on things and try to be short when the inevitable drop occurs.  But I don't think that it will be this week.  We'll get some real estate data in the next couple of days and GDP on Friday.  For now it is still a wait and see time for me.  There are no negative divergences or potential divergences at the moment.  Europe and Asia had gains overnight as the worldwide ride higher continues.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The beat goes on as not even a US government shut down can derail this runaway freight train.  The most watched index gained 142 points on average volume for a new closing high..  The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and hit new highs as well.  The market continues higher regardless of the news and that's bullish.  I'm still waiting for some type of negative divergence but we aren't seeing any.  I'm also still considering the SPY February puts but I'm not in any hurry to put this trade on.  Patience is key as we continue to climb higher with no overhead resistance.  There is no timetable for a decline as the technical indicators have essentially stopped working.  GE again is a laggard as it fell almost a dime and was the most heavily traded stock on the NYSE.  I don't know where the bottom is here but it is trying to hold the $16 level.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was down a bit.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The February option cycle has begun and there is plenty of premium built into the options.  That said, I will try and wait for at least some type of signal before attempting the first trade of 2018.  It is hard for me to get calls when we're already overbought and have been for weeks.  It is a parabolic move in my view and it won't end pretty.  But as I've already said, it's impossible to call the top.  Shorts have been squeezed to death and any selling has found ready buyers.  I'll simply have to watch and wait.  It isn't the most exciting proposition but it is my choice for now.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things as earnings season rolls along. 

Record highs for some of the major stock indices but not the Dow today.  The Dow did gain 53 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is back to trending sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  RUT managed to turn around as well so the negative sign we were getting there is abating.  The short term indicators on the VIX have turned back down as well.  It looks like we have more gains to come as the S&P 500 has broken above the short term resistance.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts though but will try and wait for a negative divergence.  GE didn't participate again as the earnings report was announced.  It fell another 1/2 on the extremely heavy volume that we've seen all week.  Oversold on the short term here but this stock has really fallen out of favor.  If not for its negative action the Dow would be that much higher.  Gold and the US dollar both had slight gains.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The week did have some selling for a change but we finished near the highs for the week on the broader major averages.  Back to short term overbought again.  We'll get some economic data mid to late next week to possibly trade off of.  We're back to no overhead resistance for the S&P.  Can anything derail the market?  At some point, yes but we certainly don't know when that point will be.  I still say that it's parabolic and dangerous but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher.  The technical indicators still don't work for sell signals and we aren't getting buy signals when we simply remain overbought.  I'm going to go over everything again this weekend to try and figure out some kind of game plan going forward.  It won't be easy.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 97 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  This could get the summation index to turn around and potentially head lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts but will let this week go by as we have option expiration tomorrow.  The indicators on the VIX are also getting to an area where we should see it turn around and head lower.  There are no negative technical divergences on the major stock averages that I see.  So I'm still trying to be patient before attempting the next trade.  Now some of the short term technical indicators have rolled over on the RUT.  This is potentially an early warning of what's to come.  But there are no guarantees  That may not mean anything.  GE got pounded again ahead of its earnings and lost over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Near term support has failed.  We luckily stepped aside attempting the calls at the $17.50 level.  We'll see how it goes with the earnings tomorrow.  Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX declined 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting week so far as the parabolic run in the Dow seems to be running out of steam.  How we close tomorrow should be a telling sign.  A potential US government shutdown looms but that is something that would eventually get resolved.  I'm not sure how much the market really cares about that.  We have seen an uptick in interest rates which is something that eventually would get the market attention.  But the fundamentals right now are all in stocks favor.  Lower corporate tax rates mean higher profits any way you look at it.  We'll stick with the technicals though and they remain vastly overbought.  I'll keep an eye on the SPY February puts and hope to eventually do a trade there.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

It looks like yesterday was simply a blip on the radar as the Dow continues to power ahead and set records day after day.  The Dow blasted ahead by 322 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is slowing down and moving sideways here.  The VIX is rising and the market is going up, which isn't the normal course of things.  We're in a speculative blow off top in my view.  It is amazing to witness, you must admit that.  Tough to trade though.  The declines are shallow and if you try to get short you get slaughtered.  I am looking at the February SPY puts and that is probably going to be the next trade.  But there are no signals as of yet.  GE is not participating as it lost 7/8 on very heavy volume.  We've shot past $17.50, which is where I was going to consider getting some calls.  I've decided to just step back and let GE go where it will.  There's more going on there than I can figure out.  The earnings on Friday should be the next catalyst.  There's just too much risk right now in that stock for me to take a chance.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every indicator remains very overbought for the S&P 500, yet we have not seen any meaningful decline.  Whatever selling that does show up only lasts for a day or so.  We are going parabolic and have moved way above the moving average lines on all time frames.  The end will not be pretty and I hope that I am able to take advantage of it.  The trouble is that I certainly don't know when a decline will happen.  The technical indicators haven't worked for weeks.  So I just don't know how long this will go on.  Perhaps all the way through earnings season.  But that's just a guess.  All I can do is keep an eye on things and try to be ready when the inevitable decline does occur.  We saw how things set up at the end of the year for traders to position themselves for this rally.  Perhaps we'll get the same chance on the decline.  Keep an eye on things.  Asia was generally lower last night and Europe was down.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow opened much higher and then closed lower.  The most watched index dropped 10 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The Dow was up over 250 points in the first half hour.  But we all know that things have gotten way ahead of themselves here.  We're still very overbought and pretty far from the 50 day moving averages on most of the major indices.  One day doesn't make a trend but some type of breather is long overdue.  There's also the possibility that we're at the end of the road for the rally that started in 2009.  But it may be too early to make that call.  But it is possible in my mind.  GE was off 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Earnings due on Friday and I have no trades in mind here.  I might consider getting some calls if we get to $17.50.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  The run up in the gold shares the past two days looks like something manufactured for the January option expiration.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was the first real negative price action that we've seen since the start of 2018.  I do think that it means something.  Whether or not it's the end of the party remains to be seen.  What I would like to see going forward is some king of negative divergence.  As in higher prices for the S&P 500 with lower readings on the short term technical indicators.  Combine that with a summation index that is heading lower would make for a decent attempt at the February SPY puts.  But we'll have to wait and see what the market does for few days before attempting to decipher what's about to happen next.  We are in earnings season now and there is nothing out there that I know of to derail higher profits for the 4th quarter.  But that's just my guess at the moment.  Todays S&P 500 price action was negative and we'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.  The VIX spiked up as well but that doesn't mean that it can't go higher.  Light on the economic data this week but we do have the beige book tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll be keeping an eye on them tonight to see if they follow the US lower.  

This has turned into a momentum driven feeding frenzy as the Dow gained 228 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to move up.  How many more times can I say that we're overbought and staying that way?  We are getting parabolic but I've said that before too.  Enjoy the ride but I don't know how to trade the SPY at this point.  The sell signals don't work and I certainly won't be trying the calls after this run up that we've already had.  So it's sit back and be patient for now.  GE didn't participate as it lost 1/4 and was the most heavily traded issue on the big board.  I probably won't be trying to trade this before the earnings in a week but you never know.  Gold climbed $16 on the futures as the US dollar dropped almost a point.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Gold has found some buyers.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can you say about this incredible rally that we've seen since the start of the year?  The economic data out today was in line with expectations.  It certainly doesn't begin to explain the 200 plus point rally in the Dow.  The market is simply feeding on itself here.  All shorts have been squeezed out again, if there even are any.  I'll say it once again.  This will end badly when it does come to the finish line.  This has all the makings of a speculative blow off top.  Throw in the 5th and final leg up from 2009 and you get the picture.  That is how I see things here at the moment.  I will not chase stocks here because in my mind the day of reckoning will be coming and it probably very well will be sometime this year.  But that doesn't mean we can't just keep going higher in the near term.  It's a long weekend in the US, which leaves only 4 trading days left in the January option cycle.  Very risky but I will look things over this weekend and see what shows up.  I'm leaning towards getting some SPY February puts if a divergence shows up.  But that will take some time.  Until then I'll just have to watch things from the sidelines and try to be patient.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The market continues to power higher as the Dow blasted off 205 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  We had a slight pause for a couple of sessions and now it's back to buying.  Overbought all the way around and that is a broken record.  Sell signals mean nothing in this atmosphere.  No overhead resistance as we simply are hitting new highs again.  The market is like a freight train with full steam ahead.  It has almost been non stop since the beginning of the new year.  Enjoy the ride because when it ends, it won't be pretty.  But there's no end in sight at the moment.  GE gained almost a dime on very heavy volume.  It did close off of its highs though.  Getting short term overbought here but not extremely so like the overall market.  Gold was up slightly today despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/8.  Volume was light.  The inflation data was light today, which may be a reason for the sell off in the US dollar today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More inflation data along with retail sales due out tomorrow.  We are also on the cusp of a long weekend in the US.  The market is overbought and just keeps going up.  It is hard to attempt a trade in this environment because the normal technical signals just don't work.  I'll have to try and not make a trade just for the sake of making one.  I'll probably just have to wait for the February option cycle at this point.  We do have the GE earnings coming out in a week.  But trying to justify doing something there probably isn't worth the risk.  It looks like I could be on the sidelines until after the January expiration next Friday.  Europe and Asia were a mixed bag overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 16 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  We did finish up from the lows of the session and that tells me we may be done with the near term decline.  The VIX has also rolled back down after hitting its 50 and 200 day moving average.  So my idea of getting some SPY puts is done for now.  At this rate I may not be able to find a SPY trade before the expiration next week.  We remain overbought but that has been the case for quite some time.  The technical signals for selling just haven't worked.  GE was up over 1/3 on pretty heavy volume.  I think that it is safe to say that the bottom has been put in here for GE.  If it ever did get back to $17.50, I would say it's a buy.  Gold bounced back almost $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX rose 1/8.  Volume was lighter.  Inflation data on tap in the next couple of days before a long weekend for the US.  Running out of time in the January option cycle.  I certainly don't want to push an agenda here because the risk increases with each passing day.  We're still on a manic bull run in my opinion, with no overhead resistance.  I will once again say that I think we're in the 5th and final wave up on the S&P 500 that began back in 2009.  When it's over we will see quite a change in price.  But to try and guess when it will happen is not a good idea.  As long as the overbought conditions don't lead to any actual declines, the trend is intact.  However trying to trade it is proving pretty difficult for me.  Really, in the beginning of last week was when the SPY January calls should have been purchased.  Anything after that is more of a guess.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trading action.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

Still moving up as the Dow gained 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  We did finish well off the highs for the day in the S&P 500.  Perhaps we are finally going to get a long overdue, much needed rest.  We remain very overbought in the short term.  I am looking at the SPY January puts for a short term trade.  If we stay positive tomorrow, I may attempt it.  This is an idea that would be risky but it may be worth a shot.  It would also be a trade that would have to exited by the close on Friday.  We are on a bull run here but I think we are near the end.  I could be wrong.  GE was up a bit over 1/4 and the volume remains good.  I will need to see some more decline in order to try the January calls here.  Gold fell $6 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume picked up a bit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  When checking the charts last night I decided that looking at the SPY January puts might be worth a try.  However today may have been the day to act.  The VIX has already moved back above 10.  The only problem that I can see with this trade is that instead of a drop to relieve the extreme overbought condition, the market could simply move sideways.  That has been the case for numerous previous instances of this same extremely overbought technical condition for the S&P 500 recently.  That is the risk.  We are further away from the 50 day moving average than we have been before.  The market will not stay up here forever.  So we'll see.  If there is some strength in the morning perhaps I'll give it a shot.  But if we open lower, you'll know that it is too late and the optimum time for this trade has passed.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

The Dow took a slight breather to begin the week as it lost 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Very overbought once again and I do expect some decline within the next couple of sessions.  The question is whether it will be enough of a drop to attempt a trade with the SPY January puts.  It is something that I'm considering but probably won't do.  We are still in a rip roaring bull market.  However I will go over the numbers tonight.  GE lost 1/4 and was the most active issue once again on the big board.  What I'm wondering here is if this is the pullback that we need to get long before the earnings due out at the end of next week.  If the short term indicators get back to oversold I might try this idea.  Gold shed a buck or so as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost over a point and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was average.  The gold shares have had a nice run since the middle of December and are due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts with many non market related things to deal with.  One of the keys to be successful at this game is to remain focused.  At least that is one of the keys for me.  The game is hard enough as it is but if you have other things on your mind it will make things even tougher.  At least I am able to recognize my current mental condition and tread lightly for now.  The markets really are simply still just going straight up.  It's already too late in my mind to attempt the SPY calls here unless we see some weakness.  There are no sellers.  Shorts have already been squeezed.  Patience is required but there still may be time left for a trade before the January expiration.  We'll see.  Inflation data along with retail sales at the end of this week.  Asia was higher but Japan was closed.  Europe was mixed.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

It's simply just up, up and away at this point.  The Dow soared 220 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Lighter than expected jobs numbers didn't mean a thing.  The market will view anything as positive at this point.  There isn't much more to point out that I haven't already said.  Overbought all the way around and no overhead resistance.  If we keep just going up every day it will turn into a parabolic advance which won't end pretty.  It would certainly be healthier if we could take a rest but at this rate, I wouldn't count on it.  We've moved so far that I'm not looking at the January SPY calls anymore right now.  GE was up a penny on heavy volume but came off of its highs for the session.  It's hanging around the 50 day moving average which should be the first area of resistance.  I am still considering a trade here because we'll get some movement on the earnings in a couple of weeks.  Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  As always the question is where do we go from here?  There's nothing in the way of higher prices.  The market seems to be feeding on itself at this point.  Anybody who tired to get short here is dead.  But I don't know how many shorts were out there.  Even I could recognize the positive set up that that was manipulated last Friday afternoon.  Not taking advantage of it was my first mistake of the new year.  Oh there will be more for sure.  However my ideas were in the right direction and there is plenty of time to make some money trading this year.  It won't always be easy as it has been this week but there will be set ups one way or the other.  Still a couple of weeks to go in the January option cycle with a holiday Monday thrown in there.  Unless something unexpected occurs you can expect higher prices going forward.  We made it to 25000 and the way things are going it looks like 26000 is a few days away.  But I don't believe that.  The volume has been getting lighter as we've moved forward this week.  Sooner or later that will catch up to this rally.  But for now, enjoy the ride.  Europe and Asia were higher as well in a worldwide stampede into stocks.  It seems as if nothing can go wrong for the markets at this point.  But in my mind that makes things tricky going forward from here and perhaps dangerous.  Haven't seen the public in yet though so there's room to roam.  I'll be checking the charts out over the weekend but they will be as overbought as they have been.  I'll try and find some kind of idea to move ahead.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Dow 25000 has been achieved as we gained 152 points on good volume today.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to trend higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but none of that seems to matter in this environment.  Still overbought and that seems to be the norm from now on.  We all know that will change, we just don't exactly know when.  Those SPY January calls have all made quite a bit money.  They'll probably make some more but I'll be waiting for some weakness before deciding whether to try that idea.  GE was up over 1/3 and the volume remains heavy.  We've made it to the 50 day moving average here and that would have been the target for that trade.  Perhaps the GE calls can be purchased before the January expiration but it would be risky.  The earnings are due out on expiration Friday.  We'll see how things go from here.  Gold was a bit higher today as the US dollar fell back again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Quite a start to the new year as we are screaming ahead in an overbought technical condition.  Anybody that has tried to get short has been squeezed relentlessly.  There have been plenty of sell signals but none of them have amounted to anything.  The drop last Friday was the perfect set up for the calls.  If that wasn't some type of manipulation, I don't know what is.  But nobody really cares as long as the market keeps going up.  Either that or nobody is paying attention.  I guess I'm just bitter because I wasn't astute enough to take advantage of it.  It certainly doesn't matter now.  We'll get the employment report tomorrow and the market reaction to it.  At the rate we are going, no matter what the numbers it will be viewed as positive.  New all time highs day after day with no overhead resistance.  It is a bull market dream and probably has plenty of room to run.  I do not think the general public has been sucked in yet.  When they get here, it will be the end.  Europe and Asia were both up overnight.  We'll close out the first week of 2018 tomorrow.   

More of the same in the march to 25000 as the Dow gained 98 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues its grind higher.  Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow.  There's no overhead resistance and apparently nothing in the way of higher prices.  Too late for the January SPY calls unless we see a pullback but I don't expect one anytime soon.  I'm not sure what the next trade will be.  GE continued higher as well and was up 17 cents.  Volume was pretty heavy again and it was the most active issue on the big board again.  I am still kicking myself for not getting into that trade.  It's like they're giving away money if you are a savvy enough trader.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce.  The XAU fell a point and GDX shed 1/4 on good volume.  I'm not sure what's next for the gold shares but they are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm doing OK.  The beige book came and went and the next potential mover is the jobs report on Friday.  I don't have anything in mind for that.  The VIX has moved back down to the lower end of its trend channel and might need to take a pause here.  But the fact of the matter is that all major stock indices are setting new all time highs and we are on an incredible bull run.  There isn't anything that I can see that is in the way of simply continuing to go up.  Overbought and staying that way was the mantra for 2017 and 2018 is starting out the same way.  We're once again pretty far from the 50 day moving averages for many major stock indices.  That condition hasn't led to any sustained declines for months.  We'll simply have to continue to sit back and enjoy the ride.  Asia was generally higher and Europe was up as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Off to the races as an expected positive start to the new year materialized.  The Dow gained 104 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  I did place an order for the SPY January calls but it wasn't filled and I canceled it.  It now looks like the late Friday decline of last week was just a pro set up for the calls to start the new year.  I suppose that I should have been paying more attention but I did not expect that drop in the final half hour last week.  I still like the long side here but the best time to get in has passed.  GE took off as expected and gained 1/2 on heavy volume.  It was the most active issue on the NYSE.  That idea was a winner and I regret not getting in before the end of the year.  In retrospect I should have adjusted the order up since I really though the trade had merit.  Simply another missed opportunity as the dogs of the Dow crew piled into that stock today.  It's too late to try this trade now but perhaps we'll get a retest of the recent lows.  But I doubt it.  Gold added $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  I still don't know what is going on here.  A raise in interest rates but the dollar declines?  This is what makes the trading so difficult sometimes.  The normal expectations just don't occur.  However the relationship between gold and the US dollar is acting according to expectations.  The XAU rose 2 7/8, while GDX gained over 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated on the first trading day of the new year.  There I had two good ideas to trade and they both so far would have worked out well but I did not get in them.  I did try but that doesn't add any money to the trading account.  I do not want to chase anything here but I do think that we are on our way to Dow 25000.  There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle but I don't want to trade just for the sake of trading.  I guess I'll take another look at things tonight and try to come up with another idea or two.  We've got beige book due out tomorrow and the employment report to deal with on Friday.  I don't expect any surprises but you never know.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'd expect more upside here in the US.